Libyan oil production rises

A new UN report on Iran’s nuclear ambitions has taken some of the focus off European sovereign debt issues and ongoing fears over demand in the crude oil markets this week.

European benchmark Brent crude rose to $113.08 a barrel on 10 November, up $0.86 from the previous day, while Nymex crude futures traded at $96.89 a barrel.

Nonetheless, there has been some positive news this week. Crude oil output from the 12-member producers group, Opec rose by 50,000 barrels a day (b/d) in October to 30.05 million b/d, according to a survey by the UK’s Platts.

Increased output from Libya, up to 350,000 b/d in October compared to just 90,000 b/d in September has helped offset drops in Saudi Arabia, as well as higher rates from Kuwait.

Oil officials in Libya are certainly more optimistic now about the sector’s recovery prospects than just a few months ago. France’s Total says it expects onshore production to start in early 2012 at the Mabruk field, adding up to 50,000 b/d of extra supplies from the newly liberated country.

Production in Libya is now up to 567,000 b/d, according to the newly appointed chairman of National Oil Corporation (NOC), Nouri Berrouin. The country had produced some 1.6 million b/d before civil war erupted in March.

Saudi Arabia on the over hand has seen the single largest drop in production from the group, with output down 140,000 b/d to 9.6 million b/d in October.

2020 forecasts

The group also released one of two major forecasts this week, along with the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA).

Opec puts cumulative demand between 2010 and 2015 at 92.9 million b/d, up 1.9 million b/d on its forecast at the end of last year. The group also raised its expectations of supply by 2015, with non-Opec crudes expected to reach 55.3 million b/d compared to 54 million b/d in the 2010 forecast, driven by Latin American production.

The IEA offers a similar analysis, raising its forecast for 2020 global oil demand to 94.6 million b/d, up 1.1 million b/d from its previous report. This gives average growth of 1.2 million b/d a year, a big increase on the 0.86 million b/d average expected. Some analysts, however, still see these figures as conservative.