In the long run, there is only one way forward

There will be no quick end to the confrontations that have blown up across the region. Having restricted for generations most forms of public dissent, governments face a choice of putting down protests and risking fanning the flames of unrest, or opening a dialogue and risking encouraging others with grievances to join the protests.

In the short term, both routes offer only increased uncertainty.

In Cairo and Tunis, after violent confrontations, the rulers chose to step down. And while a mood of optimism has swept those countries, their future political direction is uncertain and is fraught with danger.

Meanwhile, Manama, Tripoli and Sanaa have chosen to fight with far reaching consequences. Libya is facing a long and bloody civil conflict battle, with outside powers egging on the rebels without empowering them to resist Qaddafi’s superior forces. Bahrain’s use of Saudi troops to crackdown on Shia protesters risks escalating sectarian tensions in the region. While government crackdown in Yemen threatens to trigger a civil war on the Arabian Peninsula.

In the long term, however, there is only one path governments can take, democratic reform. The pressures that have led to the protests will not go away soon. And, while unpalatable to the powerful conservatives, governments have no choice but to start delivering political reform.