Killing Bin Laden changes everything

The death of Osama Bin Laden on 2 May allows the US to finally draw a line under the tragedy of 9/11 and removes a bogeyman that has distorted US policy in the region for the past decade

In terms of day-to-day management of Al-Qaeda’s operations, it is unlikely that the killing of Osama Bin Laden will change much in the short-term.

The structure and aims of the network are loose enough and fragmented enough to ensure that its activities will continue unaffected, possibly even surging in the immediate aftermath of the killing. 

In the long-term however, Bin Laden’s death is a very significant moment for Washington and for Islamic extremists worldwide. It changes everything.

For Washington, its is the slaying of the man that has embodied global terrorism, and it is a part-vindication of the ten-year-long ‘War on Terror’ that has polarised opinion at home and in the region. It will restore some confidence in government policy and boost business sentiment.  The boost to Barack Obama’s approval ratings will make him unbeatable in next years’ presidential elections.

But most important of all, it also provides closure for the US on the atrocities of 9/11. Washington can now review its foreign and security policies in the region without the distorting requirement to hunt down Bin Laden. Withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq become easier, as do actions against the regimes in Libya, Syria and Iran and providing support to the democracy protests that have engulfed the region.

For Islamist groups it is also a defining moment. As a devout Muslim, and a man who brought jihad against two world superpowers - USSR and US, Bin Laden was a hero for many disaffected Muslims. As a martyr, his symbolic power will be even more powerful.

But it comes at a difficult time for Islamist groups. The popular uprisings that have engulfed the region in the past four months have been driven by calls for social and political freedom for the region’s young population.  And while the uncertainty caused by the Arab Spring has created in places like Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya and Syria potentially provides fertile recruiting grounds for extremists, the success of the pro-democracy protests potentially undermines the Islamist cause.

For the region, it is a bright opportunity for a new approach. The counter-productive you-are-either-with-me-or-against-me approach of the War on Terror has forced many people to adopt positions they do not naturally feel comfortable with. The US and its allies can use Bin Laden’s killing as an opportunity to follow a more inclusive approach to security in the region. One centred on improving living standards, creating jobs and encouraging political dialogue and social reform.

For Islamist groups, it is a chance to separate the call for the application of Sharia-based social and political systems aimed at improving life in the region, and religiously-justified terrorism.