Fragile democracy under siege

The week of violence that resulted in Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah movement being routed by Hamas in the Gaza Strip has opened a deep schism in Palestinian society. Whether the Palestinian president can regain control remains unclear.

With the violence abating as both sides consolidate their positions, the new fear among Palestinians is that this division could become permanent, destroying any notion of true democracy in the Occupied Territories.

'The big risk now is to Palestinian democracy, which we have worked so hard to establish,' says Palestinian Information Minister Mustafa Barghouthi. 'At present, there are no efforts at reconciliation. Eventually, of course, there will have to be, but I believe the only solution now is early elections to give the government legitimacy going forward.'

Although the new cabinet - with former finance minister Salam Fayyad taking over as prime minister - has constitutional legitimacy, the government's emergency powers extend for only 30 days. When that expires, Abbas needs two-thirds approval from the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) for the arrangement to continue or he must appoint another new cabinet and begin the process again.

'I do not think that will happen because two-thirds of the PLC would include Hamas, so the government will not have quorum,' says Diana Bhutto, a former legal adviser to the president and now a tutor at Birzeit University in the West Bank.

Hamas has already declared the emergency administration illegal and Fayyad has conceded that the new government has a 'credibility problem'.

This problem has not been eased by the speed with which Israel and the US have welcomed Hamas' exclusion from the new government. The international community is blamed throughout much of Palestinian society for fostering civil violence through the financial embargo imposed on the Hamas-led government.

'The international community continued the embargo because it was looking for something like this to happen, but look at what has happened and where they have left us,' says Barghouthi.

'If I had been in Abbas' position I would have gone to the international community and said _I will resign unless the embargo is lifted. You have made it impossible for me to rule effectively and move Palestinian society forward. Take the keys, I am leaving'.'

Talk of lifting the embargo to Fatah alone began circulating among Israel and Western powers within hours of Abbas' dissolution of the national unity government on 14 June and does not strengthen the president's hand.

While the release of withheld funds into the West Bank is welcome, it will not assist him in overcoming the deep divisions in Palestinian society if his administration is perceived to be in the pay of the US and Israel.

'The speed of Israel's welcome for Fayyad and the new cabinet is dangerous,' says Barghouthi.

'Israel has been hoping for this. It is cementing this division because it has given it the opportunity to say that the Palestinians cannot rule themselves.

'It feeds into its strategy,' agrees Bhutto. 'I have always felt Israel was prepared to give up as much land as was necessary to get rid of the [Palestinian] people, which is why it was happy to give up Gaza. Israel is playing the game of being the facilitator, and I fear that the Palestinians will fall into this trap.'

Hamas is certain to exploit the situation, but also faces a dilemma that should force it to the negotiating table when the thrill of victory begins to pall. Gaza remains the open prison it has been since the beginning of the second intifada - its economy and infrastructure shattered, and access by air, land and sea controlled by foreign powers. With Hamas now in sole charge of the Strip, its isolation has deepened.

'The Karni crossing is closed. Egypt will not let the Rafah crossing remain open so another lifeline wil