Middle East Economic Review 2011
GDP growth in Middle East and North Africa
E-zine Supplement
Middle East Economic Review 2011
After several years in the doldrums, 2010 was a promising year for the economies of the Middle East and North Africa. Almost every country in the region saw growth accelerate and trade levels improve, while budget deficits became increasingly rare.
Economic profiles
Middle East Economic Review 2011: Concerns over instability in the Middle East return
After the global economic crisis, the fiscal forecast for the Middle East was upbeat. Then political unrest swept the region. Growth for most countries now looks to be an even longer uphill struggle
Economic cracks deepen in Bahrain
Much of Bahrain’s economic activity this year has been wiped out by a youth-led protest movement. The government must address its sectarian divide if growth is to be restored
Iran pushes market reform
Tehran has increased its spending for 2011 to alleviate the effects of subsidy cuts, but analysts predict its economy will remain flat as sanctions continue to stifle growth
Politics stall projects in Kuwait
Kuwait’s plans to diversify its economy require increased oil revenues, but political deadlock is preventing crucial projects from moving ahead
Oman spends to curb unrest
Protests have forced Muscat into raising wages and reshuffling its cabinet. However, in making the hasty concessions the government may have failed to consider the long-term implications
Doha’s economic focus shifts to infrastructure
The pace of Qatar’s economic development will depend on whether the country retains the right to host the 2022 Fifa World Cup following allegations of bribery
Riyadh ramps up state spending
The Saudi government has increased expenditure to avoid civil unrest, but to sustain the growth of the economy it will need to wean itself off a reliance on oil revenues
UAE set to benefit from stability
As political unrest sweeps the region, the Emirates can expect heightened growth as foreign investors seek a more stable environment and the capital ramps up oil production to make up for lost output
Yemen descends deeper into chaos
Aside from its liquefied natural gas project, Sanaa has had few successes to boast of in recent years. Without foreign support, or GCC help, Yemen will struggle to stabilise its political and economic situation
Algeria and Morocco: Facing up to slower growth
Economic growth in Algeria and Morocco is likely to be constrained by the turbulent political environment in the North Africa region
Egypt moves towards democracy
The revolution in Cairo has put a strain on public finances and slowed foreign investment. Electing a new government in favour of social and economic change will be key to stabilising the economy
Hope erased in Libya
At the end of 2010, growth in the North African country seemed certain. Now embroiled in civil war, Libya’s economy is expected to suffer from trade sanctions and a sharp fall in its oil production
Tunisia strives for rapid recovery
A stimulus package to create more jobs will be Tunisia’s first step to recovery. But in the short term, plans to sell the former president’s assets could provide a vital boost to the economy
Sudan prepares for split
Co-operation between the North and the South will be key to economic development. But disputes over oil resources and debt will hamper progress
Lack of economic reform stifles Syria, Lebanon and Jordan
Political and economic reform will be vital to the development of the Levant countries. But internal wrangling and a lack of progress on key policies will threaten solid economic growth
Gaza to gain economically as crossing reopens
Israeli import and export restrictions and a dependence on donor aid continue to stunt Gaza’s economic growth, but Egypt’s decision to re-open the Rafah border crossing will boost trade
Iraq’s coalition under pressure
Baghdad’s new government has struggled with internal disputes and is under intense scrutiny as demonstrators call for an end to corruption and better public services
Real GDP Growth (%)
Click on the country name to see more economic and demographic data.
| Country | 2010 | 2011f | 2012f |
| 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | |
| 4.1 | 3.1 | 5.1 | |
| Egypt | 5.1 | 1 | 4 |
| Gaza/ West Bank | 9.3 | 9 | 10 |
| Iran | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Iraq | 0.8 | 9.6 | 12.6 |
| Jordan | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.9 |
| Kuwait | 2 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| Lebanon | 7.5 | 2.5 | 5 |
| Libya | 4.2 | na | na |
| Morocco | 3.2 | 3.9 | 4.6 |
| Oman | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Qatar | 16.3 | 20 | 7.1 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3.7 | 7.5 | 3 |
| Sudan | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.6 |
| Syria | 3.2 | 3 | 5.1 |
| Tunisia | 3.7 | 1.3 | 5.6 |
| UAE | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| Yemen | 8 | 3.4 | 4 |
|
f=forecast;
na=Not Available. Source: IMF |
|||
Proven Oil Reserves
| Country | oil (billion barrels) | % of world total |
| Algeria | 12.2 | 0.9 |
| Bahrain | 0.6 | 0 |
| Egypt | 4.4 | 0.3 |
| Iran | 137.6 | 10.3 |
| Iraq | 115 | 8.6 |
| Kuwait | 101.5 | 7.6 |
| Libya | 44.3 | 3.3 |
| Oman | 5.6 | 0.4 |
| Qatar | 26.8 | 2 |
| Saudi Arabia | 264.6 | 19.8 |
| Sudan | 6.7 | 0.5 |
| Syria | 2.5 | 0.2 |
| Tunisia | 0.6 | 0 |
| UAE | 97.8 | 7.3 |
| Yemen | 2.7 | 0.2 |
| b/d=barrels per day. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Proven reserves at the end of 2009. | ||
Proven Gas Reserves
| Country | Gas (trillion cm) | % of world total |
| Algeria | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| Bahrain | 0.09 | 0 |
| Egypt | 2.19 | 1.2 |
| Iran | 29.61 | 15.8 |
| Iraq | 3.17 | 1.7 |
| Kuwait | 1.78 | 1 |
| Libya | 1.54 | 0.8 |
| Oman | 0.98 | 0.5 |
| Qatar | 25.37 | 13.5 |
| Saudi Arabia | 7.92 | 4.2 |
| Syria | 0.28 | 0.2 |
| UAE | 6.43 | 3.4 |
| Yemen | 0.49 | 0.3 |
| cm=cubic metres. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Proven reserves at the end of 2009. | ||
Gas Production (bcm/d)
| Country | 2008 | 2009 |
| Algeria | 85.8 | 81.4 |
| Bahrain | 12.7 | 12.8 |
| Egypt | 59 | 62.7 |
| Iran | 116.3 | 131.2 |
| Kuwait | 12.8 | 12.5 |
| Libya | 15.9 | 15.3 |
| Oman | 24.1 | 24.8 |
| Qatar | 77 | 89.3 |
| Saudi Arabia | 80.4 | 77.5 |
| Syria | 5.5 | 5.8 |
| UAE | 50.2 | 48.8 |
| bcm/d=billion cubic metres per day. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 2009 figures. | ||
Energy Consumption
| Country | Oil (thousand b/d) | Gas (billion cm/d) |
| Algeria | 331 | 26.7 |
| Egypt | 720 | 42.5 |
| Iran | 1,741 | 131.7 |
| Kuwait | 419 | 13.4 |
| Qatar | 209 | 21.1 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2,614 | 77.5 |
| UAE | 455 | 59.1 |
| b/d= barrels per day; cm/d=billion cubic metres per day. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 2009 figures. | ||
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