Middle East Economic Review 2012
E-zine Supplement
Middle East Economic Review 2012
The outlook for the regional economy has become considerably more complex as 2012 has progressed.
Economic review: Introduction
Middle East Economic Review: Optimism despite storm clouds gathering
The outlook for the regional economy has become more complex
Economic profiles
Qatar to see enviable economic growth
With a finite timeline to get ready for the 2022 football World Cup, Qatar is embarking on a major construction programme, which will offset slower hydrocarbons growth
Bahrain funds deficit with bonds
As social unrest in Manama continues and its deficit grows, the country is becoming more dependent on financial and political support from its neighbours
Donor aid loss hits Gaza and West Bank economy
With disputes continuing between Hamas and Fatah, and a drop in the amount of donor aid, Gaza and the West Bank are facing a deepening fiscal crisis
Conflict hits Levant economies
The armed uprising against the regime in Damascus is destabilising the entire Levant region and economic growth is slowing
Transit deal vital to Sudan
A sharp drop in hydrocarbon income has left Khartoum with a funding shortfall that must be bridged if domestic political pressure is to be eased
Oil key to Libya’s recovery
Crude production is expected to reach pre-war levels this month, and revenues will help pay for the country’s reconstruction
Maghreb increases budgets
Despite fiscal deficits, the governments of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have ramped up spending to meet increasing pressure to deliver food and fuel subsidies, jobs and housing
Egypt economy in downward spiral
The political uncertainty in post-revolutionary Egypt is having a detrimental impact on the economy, from shrinking foreign reserves to rising unemployment and low investor confidence
Yemen in urgent need of funds
Threatened by dwindling hydrocarbons reserves and a shrinking economy, Sanaa desperately needs overseas financial support to reverse the effects of the recent uprising
Economic growth moderates in UAE
Abu Dhabi’s oil industry operated at close to capacity in 2011 and may not fuel further growth in 2012. Instead, the country will focus on expanding its non-oil sector
Budget breakeven price to soar in Saudi Arabia
Riyadh’s increased spending commitments are driving up the oil price it needs to balance its budget, reaching $320 a barrel by 2030
Oman spends to ease unrest
The sultanate has increased social spending to appease protesters, but it needs to wean itself off a reliance on hydrocarbons revenues and diversify its economy
Projects to test political resolve in Kuwait
Depending on the progress of several key megaprojects, 2012 could mark a new start for Kuwait’s economy or a repeat of the shambles of 2008
Long road to economic recovery for Iraq
While the economy is growing rapidly, political rifts and a volatile security situation are slowing progress in rebuilding the country
Economic growth stagnates in Iran
The remainder of Ahmadinejad’s presidency is likely to be characterised by run-ins with a conservative parliament and a deteriorating economy due to sanctions
Spending exposes oil exporters in the Middle East
Most hydrocarbons-rich nations are seeing short-term economic growth on the back of high oil prices, but the long term could see their surpluses running out and their fiscal deficits growing
Real GDP Growth (%)
Click on the country name to see more economic and demographic data.
| Country | 2011 | 2012f | 2013f |
| Algeria | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| Bahrain | 1.8 | 2 | 2.8 |
| Egypt | 1.8 | 1.5 | 3.3 |
| Gaza/West Bank | 9 | 10 | na |
| Iran | 2 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| Iraq | 9.9 | 11.1 | 13.5 |
| Jordan | 8.2 | 6.6 | 1.8 |
| Kuwait | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Lebanon | 1.5 | 3 | 4 |
| Libya | -61 | 76.3 | 21 |
| Morocco | 4.3 | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Oman | 5.5 | 5 | 4 |
| Qatar | 18.8 | 6 | 4.6 |
| Saudi Arabia | 6.8 | 6 | 4.1 |
| Sudan | -3.9 | -7.3 | -1.5 |
| Syria | na | na | na |
| Tunisia | -0.8 | 2.2 | 3.5 |
| UAE | 4.9 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Yemen | -10.5 | -0.9 | 2.9 |
| f=forecast; na=Not Available. Source: IMF | |||
Last Updated: June 2012
Proven Oil Reserves
| Country | oil (billion barrels) | % of world total |
| Algeria | 12.2 | 0.7 |
| Bahrain | 0.6 | 0 |
| Egypt | 4.3 | 0.3 |
| Iran | 151.2 | 9.1 |
| Iraq | 143.1 | 8.7 |
| Kuwait | 101.5 | 6.1 |
| Libya | 47.1 | 2.9 |
| Oman | 5.5 | 0.3 |
| Qatar | 24.7 | 1.5 |
| Saudi Arabia | 265.4 | 16.1 |
| Sudan | 6.7 | 0.4 |
| Syria | 2.5 | 0.2 |
| Tunisia | 0.4 | 0 |
| UAE | 97.8 | 5.9 |
| Yemen | 2.7 | 0.2 |
| b/d=barrels per day. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Proven reserves at the end of 2011 | ||
Oil Production
| Country | 2009 | 2010 | 2011l |
| Algeria | 1,762 | 1,762 | 1,729 |
| Bahrain | na | na | na |
| Egypt | 736 | 730 | 735 |
| Iran | 4,249 | 4,338 | 4,321 |
| Iraq | 2,447 | 2,480 | 2,798 |
| Kuwait | 2,477 | 2,518 | 2,865 |
| Libya | 1,652 | 1,659 | 479 |
| Oman | 813 | 865 | 891 |
| Qatar | 1,345 | 1,569 | 1,723 |
| Saudi Arabia | 9,809 | 9,955 | 11,161 |
| Sudan (unified) | 475 | 465 | 453 |
| Syria | 401 | 385 | 332 |
| Tunisia | 83 | 80 | 78 |
| UAE | 2,750 | 2,867 | 3,322 |
| Yemen | 306 | 301 | 228 |
| All oil figures are thousand barrels per day. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Production at the end of 2011 | |||
Proven Gas Reserves
| Country | Gas (trillion cm) | % of world total |
| Algeria | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| Bahrain | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Egypt | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Iran | 33.1 | 15.9 |
| Iraq | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| Kuwait | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Libya | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Oman | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Qatar | 25 | 12 |
| Saudi Arabia | 8.2 | 3.9 |
| Syria | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| UAE | 6.1 | 2.9 |
| Yemen | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| cm=cubic metres. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Proven reserves at the end of 2011 | ||
Gas Production (bcm/d)
| Country | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Algeria | 79.6 | 80.4 | 78 |
| Bahrain | 12.8 | 13.1 | 13 |
| Egypt | 62.7 | 61.3 | 61.3 |
| Iran | 131.2 | 146.2 | 151.8 |
| Iraq | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Kuwait | 11.2 | 11.7 | 13 |
| Libya | 15.9 | 16.8 | 4.1 |
| Oman | 24.8 | 27.1 | 26.5 |
| Qatar | 89.3 | 116.7 | 146.8 |
| Saudi Arabia | 78.5 | 87.7 | 99.2 |
| Syria | 5.6 | 7.7 | 8.3 |
| UAE | 48.8 | 51.3 | 51.7 |
| Yemen | 0.8 | 6.2 | 9.4 |
| bcm/d=billion cubic metres per day. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 2011 figures. | |||
