Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company (Adwec) expects demand for power to increase by 11.3 per cent a year in the emirate of Abu Dhabi between 2011 and 2015 and by 13.6 per cent a year once electricity exports are included.

Speaking at MEED’s Arabian Power & Water Summit in Abu Dhabi, Keith Miller, director of planning and studies at Adwec, said that the increase will be driven primarily by the anticipated increase in power needs from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) and electricity exports to the UAE’s northern emirates.

Global demand (Abu Dhabi and its power exports) is expected to increase by about 6,500MW between 2011 and 2015. Of this, about two-thirds is expected to be driven by power exports and demand from Adnoc.

According to Adwec’s forecast, power demand in Abu Dhabi is expected to increase at a rate of 11.3 per cent a year between 2011 and 2015. The pace is expected to slow slightly after 2015 so the average increase in power demand is expected to be 9.4 per cent a year in 2011-20.

The trend is mirrored by global electricity demand, which is expected to rise by 13.6 per cent a year between 2011 and 2015, and 10.1 per cent annually between 2011 and 2020. Power demand from Adnoc is expected to rise from 500MW currently to 2,300MW in 2015. This is the result of the ongoing move by Adnoc to source power from the grid as opposed to producing its own captive power.

Peak power demand in Abu Dhabi in 2011 stood at 7,683MW. This represented an increase of 12 per cent on 2010 figures. Global electricity demand peaked in 2011 at 9,749MW. According to Miller, global peak electricity production will exceed 10,000MW in 2012 for the first time. Only Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have greater electricity demands in the GCC.

Exports to the UAE’s northern emirates increased in 2011 by 19 per cent on the previous year to 2,066MW. The Federal Electricity and Water Authority (Fewa) and Sharjah Electricity and Water Authority (Sewa) generate about 1,300MW and 2,400MW respectively.

Demand for water in Abu Dhabi is also expected to rise. Unlike in the case of power, Adnoc’s operations do not affect its demand for water to a large extent. Nevertheless, demand is expected to double between 2011 and 2030.

Water demand Abu Dhabi is forecasted to grow by 8 per cent a year between 2011 and 2015. The pace is expected to slow slightly in the years that follow, so between 2011 and 2020, water demand is forecasted to grow at an average rate of 5.3 per cent a year. Global water demand is forecasted to grow by 9.1 per cent a year between 2001 and 2015. Between 2011 and 2020, it is expected to grow by 5.7 per cent a year.