Following the withdrawal of the conservative Istiqlal party from Morocco’s coalition government, Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane has been exploring ways to build a new governing majority.

While fresh elections remain a fallback option, Benkirane’s preference is to maintain stability by bringing in a new partner to replace Istiqlal’s 60 national assembly members. He has been courting the centre-right liberal Rassemblement Nationale des Independants (RNI), which has 52 seats; the party would be offered five ministerial posts.

Narrow majority

Combined with the 107 seats held by the premier’s own Justice and Development Party (PJD) and those of the other coalition partners, the Popular Movement (MP) – 32 seats and the Socialism and Progress Party (PPS) – 18 seats, this would still assure the government a narrow but clear majority in the 395-seat lower house of parliament (the chamber of representatives).

In today’s tough economic climate, the PJD has not been able to fulfill the expectations of the voters whose support enabled it to enter government for the first time after the November 2011 elections, in the wake of the Arab uprisings.

But the moderate Islamist party remains popular. While maintaining a disciplined overall economic stance, it has tried to respond to the concerns of its core electorate among poor urban voters. If Benkirane does have to call fresh elections, the PJD is likely to emerge with more assembly seats.

However, it is difficult to forecast the potential performance of the prime minister’s smaller coalition partners; if they lost seats, Benkirane could find himself forced back into making concessions to the combative Istiqlal leader Hamid Chabat, in an effort to construct a governing majority. Faced with these uncertainties, the prime minister has opted to see if he can refashion his governing coalition from the current parliament, rather than asking King Mohamed VI to dissolve the chamber and call new elections. This tactic also seems to be the monarch’s own preference.

When Istiqlal – the second-largest party – first declared its intention to quit the coalition back in May amid a row about cuts to fuel and food subsidies, the king sought to dissuade the party from acting on its threat. He wants to keep the PJD in government.

When protests erupted in the North African country in early 2011, the king defused the pressure through political reform, introducing the constitutional principle that the largest party to emerge from elections would have the right to lead the government. When the PJD emerged from the subsequent polls as the largest party, the king appointed its leader, Benkirane, as the new prime minister.

In doing so, he was following the precedent set by his father, King Hassan II, who in 1998 appointed the socialist Abderrahmane Youssoufi as prime minister, after the Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP) had won an election for the first time.

By allowing the socialist opposition to assume leadership of the government within the existing system, King Hassan II effectively tamed it and coopted the party into the political establishment. He thus preserved the underlying stability of the system, including the role of the monarchy.

Mainstream stance

Fifteen years later, King Mohamed VI is emulating his father’s example. He has successfully overseen the entry into power of today’s dynamic opposition, the PJD; and by cooperating with its leader, Benkirane, he has helped sustain support for his own position. Meanwhile, the PJD has adopted a mainstream consensual policy stance, rather than pushing an overtly Islamist agenda.

King Mohamed VI’s support for Benkirane encourages PJD voters to see the monarchy as a defender of their party’s right to play a leading political role, rather than a brake on its development or an obstacle to it.

But this is not a comfortable position for Istiqlal, which has traditionally seen itself as the key political voice of royal palace interests. Having seen the PJD emerge victorious from the November 2011 election, the party’s leader and outgoing premier, Abbas el-Fassi agreed to take his party into coalition with the Islamists. But in 2012, he stepped aside and Chabat, a trade unionist and mayor of the northern city of Fes, won the subsequent leadership election in September.

Within months, Chabat was agitating to distance Istiqlal from Benkirane’s approach to government and to reassert a distinctive policy identity for his party.

Criticised reforms

In January this year, Istiqlal published a memorandum demanding a reshuffle of the government, and in March, it issued a second public critique, attacking the PJD’s focus on social issues and arguing the case for a renewed focus on financial priorities. In May, the party’s national council decided it should pull out of government; it said the PJD was hurting the poor by reducing subsidies too fast.

Last year, the Moroccan government agreed to implement economic reforms including the deregulation of the prices of many staple goods in return for a two-year, $6.2bn precautionary credit line from the Washington-based IMF.

Benkirane chose not to slap down Istiqlal despite these provocations. He sought to keep the coalition on track – as did the king, who telephoned Istiqlal to press the party leadership not to act on the walkout threat.

Over the following weeks, the prime minister continued to avoid confrontation, seeking to sustain his administration. There was speculation that, if necessary, he might be able to persuade some of the most highly regarded Istiqlal ministers – such as Nizar Baraka, who works on finance and Youssef Amrani, who works on foreign affairs – to stay on in government as independents.

But eventually, both Baraka and Amrani ceded to pressure from the Istiqlal leadership, which had become increasingly determined to disassociate itself from the PJD-led government.

On 9 July, they were among five out of the six Istiqlal ministers who announced their resignations. The king reluctantly accepted their resignations, while asking them to remain as caretakers until successors were appointed.

Only Mohamed el-Ouafa, the education minister, stayed on. He was immediately suspended from the party, as a prelude to outright expulsion.

Meanwhile, by 1 August, Benkirane was reported to have offered the RNI five cabinet posts if it would join the coalition as a replacement for Istiqlal.

But these reports have not been officially confirmed and there is some doubt over whether the premier is willing to give his new partner the same portfolios that Istiqlal held, including the key post of finance minister. The Popular Movement leader Mohand Laenser – currently interior minister – is believed to favour a generalised reshuffle. In any case, Benkirane first has to persuade Salaheddine Mezouar, the RNI leader, that it is in his party’s interest to join the coalition at all.

RNI popularity

There are political arguments both for and against this move. The RNI originally voted against Benkirane’s government programme. It could lose support among the electorate if it now stages a U-turn and agrees to sign up for the sake of a share of power.

Additionally, Mezouar could find himself joining a government that has to take tough and unpopular decisions over how to sort out the budget deficit – which has grown to a hefty 10 per cent of gross domestic product. Meanwhile, Istiqlal, now back in opposition, would be free to scoop up the support of voters disenchanted with the government.

On the other hand, entry into the coalition would immediately give the RNI a share of power and as the rescuer of the coalition it may be able to bargain hard to secure important cabinet posts.

Moreover, if the party refuses to help Benkirane, Morocco could be forced to call elections. In fresh polls, the RNI, like other smaller parties, could find itself losing ground in the face of a further advance by the premier’s PJD and a recovery in support for Istiqlal under the pugnacious populist Chabat.

The RNI has responded warmly to the prime minister’s approach. Mezouar accepted Benkirane’s invitation to a second round of talks with the PJD on 5 August about joining the governing coalition, saying: “It was in nobody’s interest to compromise the political stability of this country and its social cohesion”.

Mezouar added, however, that the RNI was “not a spare tyre” that would merely replace the outgoing Istiqlal ministers. The outcome of the talks is still unknown, but for now it looks like the need for fresh elections has been avoided.