Bleak outlook for Qatar projects after World Cup

05 July 2016

Project slowdown dampens long term economic outlook

When Qatar secured the rights to host football’s 2022 Fifa World Cup in 2010 it was arguably the world’s most attractive construction market.

The bid document for the tournament committed to developing some $70bn of new infrastructure projects including a new metro network, highways, hotels, shopping malls and of course stadiums.

The smorgasbord of projects came at a time when global contractors were hungry for new work as the global financial crisis and restrictions on government budgets and credit weighed heavily on client’s ability to pursue new projects.

For much of 2011 and 2012 Doha was awash with contractors from Europe and Asia as well as North and South America eagerly hunting for new work.

The best gauge of the heightened interest came in late 2011 when contractors were invited to express interest in working on the metro and 280 firms responded.

Five years later, the sentiment has reversed completely. Work was secured in 2013 and 2014 with low margins and significant risks, and in extreme cases contractors on projects have been replaced. In May this year, Qatar Rail has appointed Athens-based Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC) to replace the joint venture of South Korea’s Samsung C&T, Spain’s OHL and the local Qatar Building Company (QBC) on the Doha Metro project.

For new work, over the past 18 months there have been concerns about a bottleneck of projects causing delays combined with lower oil and gas prices have forced Doha to scale back its project ambitions. The first high profile projects to be shelved were the Sejeel refinery and the Sharq Crossing scheme, and since them more large scale projects have stalled.

The most recent to be put on hold is the $2.7bn Inner Doha Resewerage Implementation Strategy (Idris) project. In late June the Public Works Authority (Ashghal) sent a letter to contractors suspending work on various packages including the main tunnelling contracts. Contractors were not given any indication of when, or if, work will resume.

In June, the government admitted there is a problem when the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS) warned that Qatar’s infrastructure programme for the Fifa 2022 World Cup could face delays. It said continued volatility in the oil sector is likely to have a major impact on construction projects over the coming five years.

The slowdown in project activity is spilling over into the broader economy with data suggesting that people are leaving the country as work stops on projects.

According to the data from the Development Planning and Statistics Ministry, Qatar’s population declined by 4.3 per cent to reach 2.48 million as of 30 June compared to 2.59 million recorded in end May.

While the decline could be cyclical due to June being a summer month, the rate of decline during this period of the current year is more remarkable given that the population contracted by merely 1.3 per cent during the same period in 2015.

As project woes continue Qatar’s population will face more downward pressure. This may be help alleviate traffic on the roads, but it will dampen consumption and economic growth. It will also limit the local demand for new infrastructure - including the projects that are now on hold, meaning that once the World Cup projects are finished, the prospects for construction companies look frightfully bleak.

 

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