The market has so far reacted positively to Opec’s decision to cut oil production, announced in Algiers on 28 September. Brent crude prices have remained about $50 a barrel since the start of October, having largely moved in a $45-$50 range over the previous two months.

Oil market observers will be looking to the 14-member oil cartel’s next meeting in Vienna on 30 November for further details on the proposed cuts and the subsequent impact on prices.

If Opec can carry out its proposed cut to 32.5-33 million barrels a day (b/d), this will undoubtedly support oil prices going into the winter when demand spikes in the West.

Should prices increase, all eyes will be on the US oil shale markets. If the crude price moves towards $60 a barrel, it is likely US oil shale producers, which have been hit hard by the collapse in prices since the second half of 2014, will start to ramp up production.

This will test a new dynamic that has been predicted by many oil analysts, that prices will be determined by increases and drops in North American shale oil production based on profit margins of the individual producers.

If Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude remain in a range of $50-$60 a barrel, the test will be the extent to which producers in places like Bakken, North Dakota, start to bring wells back on stream.

If this dynamic is established, Opec’s perceived ability to influence prices would appear diminished due to its relative lack of power to increase or decrease production volumes.