Egyptian politicians have a long history of playing an international relations balancing act
Earlier this month, Egypts foreign minister Sameh Shoukry said Egypt has not taken sides in the Syrian civil war. He also said that Abdul Fattah al-Sisis position is: national armies [are] better off taking responsibility for fighting terrorism in their countries, instead of relying on foreign intervention or rebel groups.
This position has proven problematic for Cairos relationship with Riyadh, which has been strongly opposed to the Iran-backed Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad and Russia.
This difference in opinion regarding the Syrian conflict was brought to the surface in October, when Saudi Arabia halted an oil agreement between Riyadh and Cairo agreed earlier this year, which was prompted when Egypt voted in favour of a Russia-backed UN resolution on Syria.
The deal involved the delivery of 700,000 tonnes of petroleum products monthly for five years on easy repayment terms, under a $23bn deal between Saudi Aramco and Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC).
Riyadh has been Egypts biggest financier since Al-Sisi overthrew the Islamist government of Mohamed Mursi in 2013. Since then a combination limited Saudi government spending amid low oil prices and a number of diplomatic rifts between the two countries has seen this financial support slow down.
Cairo has responded with an independent foreign affairs position on two key conflicts in the region; Syria and Yemen. An Egyptian court also recently rescinded the decision to cede two Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia. A deal that was part of the $23bn agreement between the two countries in October.
Throughout 2016 reports have emerged suggesting that Cairo has also resisted involvement in the Yemen conflict despite Saudi Arabia finding it difficult to manage its first foreign armed conflict in its modern history.
Although Egypts ability to abstain from Saudi Arabias diplomatic strings that come with heavy financial support can be attributed to Cairos recently agreed $12bn loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is important to understand the historical context of Egypts regional position.
Since the lifting of Iranian sanctions earlier this year, Riyadh has been aggressive in its foreign policy of uniting a Sunni bloc to counter increasing Iranian influence in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.
Despite billions of dollars of support from Riyadh, it is widely understood that the strong historical ties between Egypts army and the Syrian military remain intact. This relationship predates Saudi Arabias regional influence and is rooted in the pan-Arab history of the two nations that were briefly one country under former president Gamal Abdel Nasser. Egyptian politicians, including al-Sisi himself, have continued to show their support for the Syrian army despite Saudi Arabias position.
In Yemen, history also trumps Saudi Arabias influence. Egypt played a major role in the North Yemen Civil War (1962 -1970), when the Egyptian army found itself embroiled in an eight-year conflict that saw 26,000 Egyptians killed. Egypts involvement was a difficult one with policymakers in Cairo today unlikely to support another military intervention in Yemen.
Egyptian politicians have a long history of playing an international relations balancing act. This was best executed during the Cold War when Nasser formed the Non-Aligned Movement with the former-Yugoslavia and India, and managed to benefit from both sides of the conflict.
Riyadh and Cairo are unlikely to sever ties, but with Egypts current economic situation, it will be vital for Cairo to find a way to plug the finance gap that may be created if Saudi Arabia continues to curb its financial support to Egypt.
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