Abu Dhabi recorded a 6 per cent rise in peak demand for electricity in 2013, with demand reaching 11,243MW from 10,618MW in 2012.

According to the latest data from the Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company (Adwec), the rise in total demand in electricity from the Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Authority (Adwea) was mainly as a result of an increase in electricity exports to the northern emirates.

Electricity exports at system peak time increased by 15.3 per cent year-on-year, from 2,094MW in 2012 to 2,415MW in 2013. The Federal Electricity and Water Authority (Fewa) accounted for the majority of the exports, with the Northern Emirates’ utility receiving 1,551MW of electricity during peak periods, an increase of 12 per cent on 2012. The electricity exports to Sharjah Electricity and Water Authority (Sewa) increased by 6 per cent at peak periods, reaching 761MW, up from 715MW in 2012.

The emirate Abu Dhabi recorded a 4 per cent growth in peak load, with demand reaching 8,599MW, up from 8,278MW in 2012.

Demand for electricity from Adwea, from both within the emirate and also exports, is expected to continue to rise in 2014, according to data from Adwec’s winter 2012/13 electricity and water demand forecast.

Peak demand in the emirate of Abu Dhabi is forecast to reach 8,982MW in 2014, 4.4 per cent up on the 8,599MW recorded in 2013, and global demand, including exports, is forecast to reach 13,322MW, a growth of 18 per cent. Strong demand will continue into 2015, with global peak demand expected to reach 14,864MW, a 12 per cent increase on the forecasted 2014 figure.

The forecasted demand will be driven by population increases, the completion of major industrial projects in Abu Dhabi and further increases in exports of electricity to the Northern Emirates. Planned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), projects will also require significant supplies of electricity in the next couple of years

If demand continues to grow as predicted, the emirate could face an electricity shortage in 2016 due to delays with the proposed Mirfa independent water and power project (IWPP). Adwec predicts peak demand from Adwea could reach 16,009MW by 2016, which is more than 2,000MW higher than the current installed capacity of 13,899MW. With only the 1,647MW of new capacity from the Shuweihat 3 IWPP currently under construction, there could be a demand/supply deficit in 2016.

First power from the 1,600MW Mirfa IWPP was originally scheduled to come online in 2015, but with no sign of an imminent contract award, there is little chance of capacity being ready by 2016. The problem could be compounded if the first power from the under-construction Baraka nuclear project is late.  

The first 1,400MW reactor at the 5,600MW Baraka nuclear project is planned to come online in 2017, with the remaining reactors due to start up in 2018, 2019 and 2020. Adwea will need to begin contingency planning to ensure that it does not face electricity shortages in as little as two years’ time.