On 17 March, the European Commission (EC) laid out two possible scenarios for the movement of the oil price caused by war. In the case of a brief war with minimal disruption to supplies, the EC predicts an initial spike to $41 followed by a fall to $26 by the third quarter and to $21 by the fourth quarter. However, in its worst case scenario, the shock caused by war will last two quarters, during which the price will be between $57 and $52, before falling to $26 by the end of the year.