It took a little under half a year for the government of Kuwait’s new prime minister, Sheikh Jaber al-Mubarak al-Hamad al-Sabah, to fall into the model set by his predecessor and close relative Sheikh Nasser al-Mohamed al-Ahmed al-Sabah.

On 18 June, Sheikh Jaber and Sheikh Nasser’s uncle, Kuwait’s emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, announced that he was suspending the country’s National Assembly (parliament) for one month to allow Information Minister Ahmad al-Hamoud al-Sabah to escape parliamentary interrogation over the country’s citizenship laws.

Cabinet resignations

Sheikh Jaber’s government had already lost Mustafa al-Shamali, finance minister of five years, who resigned his post after a parliamentary interrogation in late May. Another cabinet member, Justice Minister Jamal Shebab, had also offered his resignation after he came under growing pressure from parliamentarians in June, but was refused. Labour Minister Ahmed al-Rujaib quit on 13 June to avoid questioning.

“It is indicative of something much bigger - that the government isn’t willing to share power”

Kristian Coates-Ulrichsen, London School of Economics

Then in a new twist, on 20 June, Kuwait’s constitutional court declared that elections held in February 2012 were unconstitutional because the decision to hold them was made in the absence of an appointed government. The court stated that the legislature elected in 2011 would be returned to the National Assembly. The move is likely to only inflame Kuwait’s already highly charged political arena.

Opposition parliamentarian Musallam al-Barak, a vocal critic of the current and previous administrations, described the move as “blatant attack on the choice of the people” in comments published by state media.

Opposition members of parliament had grown increasingly aggressive in recent months after a deal to include more elected officials in the cabinet fell apart during negotiations in February. Sheikh Jaber had offered to allow up to four MPs to join the cabinet, a historically high number, but opposition MPs including Faisal al-Mislem and Al-Barak demanded that they be given nine of a possible 15 places (the prime minister, appointed directly by the emir, is the 16th cabinet member).

“It is pretty clear that they have been using their majority in parliament to obstruct the government and make it clear nothing will happen without them,” says a local analyst. “And that’s their right.”

It now looks like they have overplayed their hand and the authorities are wrestling back control. “The government may think that they have bought themselves some time, but it will just serve to allow tensions to boil up,” says Kristian Coates-Ulrichsen, a fellow at the UK’s London School of Economics.

“It’s part of a bigger issue,” says a local business executive. “In the past, people were sympathetic to the government and to the Al-Sabah [family]. But after 2011, when the people got rid of a prime minister, they no longer see it like that.”

Street action

From June 2011, increasing numbers of Kuwaitis took to the streets demanding the exit of Sheikh Nasser and a renewed commitment from the government to develop the country after what is widely seen as a period of stagnation. Although Kuwait has a deeply-rooted welfare system paid for with the country’s abundant oil reserves, the state also employs 80 per cent of all nationals and many Kuwaitis feel that the petrodollars could be put to better use.

Intransigent parliamentarians have long been held to account for economic inactivity in Kuwait, but, says the analyst, have “failed to fight their corner” and communicate their strategy to average Kuwaitis.

Meanwhile, accusations of corruption levelled against Sheikh Nasser’s government have not abated since Sheikh Jaber took over. If anything, they have grown stronger, while opposition MPs, particularly those associated with the Development and Reform Bloc, such as Al-Mislem, have grown in confidence.

Opposition gains

In the 2 February parliamentary election, opposition candidates filled 34 of 50 seats available, reversing the outcome of previous polls, which saw moderate and pro-government candidates make modest gains. One of the new parliament’s first actions was to make Ahmed al-Sadoun, leader of the conservative Popular Action Bloc of which Al-Barak is also a member, and a prominent critic of Sheikh Nasser, speaker of parliament.

“We have seen over the past five months a complete struggle for power,” says Coates-Ulrichsen. “The opposition feels it is entitled to demonstrate its strength given its showing in the elections. And [parliament] has descended into bickering and finger-pointing. It is indicative of something much bigger - that the government isn’t willing to share power.”

It is as yet unclear what will happen now, whether the former parliament will simply be restored or fresh elections will be held.

Tensions are also rising between members of Kuwait’s royal family over governance. In a shock decision in March, the governor of the Central Bank of Kuwait, Sheikh Salem Abdul-aziz al-Sabah, resigned from his post after

25 years in the job. He complained that government spending, particularly on items such as wages and overheads, was getting out of hand.

“The challenge of current local economic conditions and forecast growth in public expenditure has reached a point where it would prevent the banks from carrying out its duties as stated in the bill of its establishment,” he told the state-run Kuwait News Agency (Kuna).

“A key issue for the emir is that … blame for stagnant development has been levelled at Sheikh Nasser”

Local analyst

Another analyst, who asks not to be named because of the sensitivity of the subject matter, says that a key issue for the emir is that for the duration of his rule much blame for stagnant development has been levelled at Sheikh Nasser. With the long-standing premier having departed in November and little notable change made in the interim, focus is slowly moving to the emir.

A source close to the family says that internal divisions are growing, with some Al-Sabah family members quietly critical of Sheikh Nasser, Sheikh Jaber and even the emir, where in the past they had limited their complaints to the prime minister. “Where do they go from here?” asks Coates-Ulrichsen. “That all depends on the emir really.”

The key issue in the coming months will be the government’s response. Sheikh Jaber could try and pass some popular reforms or push ahead with important projects. In June, parliament voted to block a contract for the construction of the country’s first independent water and power plant. Sheikh Jaber does not neccessarily need to pay heed to the motion and without parliamentarians around could finalise the deal.

But if he does this, he will likely just be inviting more trouble. The government is in the process of moving on a series of key economic projects, including $30bn of refinery-related schemes. The opposition-led legislature is hardly likely to take kindly to the construction deals for these projects if they are now overruled.

Meanwhile, the likelihood of either side compromising on key issues, particularly cabinet posts, is fast receding. The problem for Sheikh Jaber and the emir is that they are losing the faith of a public which, like elsewhere across the Arab world, has learned that it can unseat powerful politicians despite their family ties. This does not bode well for the future.

Way forward

Kuwait’s government has also learnt that unlike its Gulf neighbours it cannot simply spend its way out of a tight spot. Like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Oman, Kuwait increased public sector pay and delivered big payouts in 2011. But the move did little to assuage the population. Further payouts will make little difference and will likely raise the hackles of Al-Sabah family members such as Sheikh Salem, who feel that government spending is spiralling out of control.

The question for the government will be whether or not to roll back some of the freedoms which mark out the small, oil-rich emirate from its regional peers. Open political debate and a sometimes astoundingly free press have become hallmarks of political life in Kuwait, but are also seen by other Gulf states as the reason the country’s government has been unable to move ahead with its development plans.

The second analyst points out that it may be too late to go back. “I think after last year they would find it hard to try and take things away from the public such as relatively free speech. The problem is, are they willing to go further and give the opposition a real share of the power? I don’t think they quite are yet,” he says. The 20 June decision suggests he is right.