As representatives from seven countries meet in Lausanne, Switzerland, to try to reach an agreement on the future of Iran’s nuclear development programme, not all world leaders want the talks to yield results.

For the US and EU, the agreement could bring Iran back into the global economy, while ensuring the Islamic Republic does not have a swift route to developing nuclear weapons.

US President Barack Obama, who faces the last 18 months of his US presidency with a hostile Republican-majority congress, reaching an accord with Iran where his predecessors failed could do much to improve his diplomatic legacy, along with his thawing of relations with Cuba.

Iran and the P5+1 world powers are now the closest they have ever been to reaching a compromise, with reports from Lausanne claiming only two issues remain before a political understanding can be reached. These involve the scope of research Iran would be allowed to conduct and the potential relief from UN sanctions.  

The biggest winner from any deal affecting sanctions would be Iran’s economy, which has been crippled by US, EU and UN-enforced measures against its banks and energy sector.

The World Bank estimates that Iran’s real GDP contracted by 5.8 per cent in 2012/13 and by a further 1.7 per cent in 2013/14, based on the Iranian calendar starting and ending in March.

Meanwhile, Iran’s oil exports have dropped significantly due to sanctions, with the impact on the country’s crude revenues exacerbated by falling global crude prices.

In 2012, Iran’s banks were blocked from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (Swift), the body that handles global banking transactions. This has made it difficult for money to enter and leave the country through official channels, reducing Iran’s ability to trade and acquire hard currency.

If economic sanctions were lifted, there may not be an immediate flow of large investments into Iran but, if confidence was slowly restored, the potential for outside trade and investment in the Islamic Republic is, perhaps, the largest in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region.

One of the main sectors in need of investment is oil and gas, where international oil companies (IOCs) have left major upstream concessions, leaving Iran without world-class technology in many areas of the sector, including liquefied natural gas (LNG).

While the US president wants a positive agreement reached, America’s strongest allies in the Middle East – Israel and Saudi Arabia – would not welcome the acceptance of Iran as a legitimate regional power.

The Israeli leadership is convinced Tehran is aiming to weaponise its nuclear programme as quickly as possible, and the re-election of Israel’s right-wing prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, will re-enforce its opposition to an agreement.

Netanyahi warned in a cabinet meeting on 29 March that the potential agreement was worse than Israel had feared. He said, after consulting Republican US senators, that Obama’s stance “conveyed our serious concern regarding the arrangement with Iran at the nuclear talks”.

“This agreement confirms all our fears and exceeds them,” he added. He also warned that Iran is attempting to take over the Middle East using proxy organisations in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and now, Yemen.

The latter concern is top of the agenda for foreign policymakers in Saudi Arabia, which this week launched attacks on Iran-backed Houthi rebels in neighbouring Yemen.

Iran’s growing influence in the fight against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (Isis) in Iraq is also a major concern in Riyadh, as Iran-backed Shia militias have outnumbered conventional forces in key battles such as Tikrit.

The two regional powers have backed forces in the Syrian civil war, with Saudi Arabia training Sunni paramilitary groups to fight against the Iran-allied government of President Bashar al-Assad.

Saudi Arabia is thought to have a plan in place to quickly acquire nuclear weapons if at any time it believes Iran is close to developing warheads. This could be possible through a deal with Pakistan – a nuclear power and ally of Riyadh.

Some critics of the agreement being negotiated in Lausanne see a bad deal – one that does not place enough limits on Tehran’s uranium enrichment programme – as the recipe for a nuclear arms race in the region, which could see several powers emerge with nuclear arsenals.

For the UAE, an agreement in Lausanne would be mixed. Abu Dhabi is a staunch ally of Saudi Arabia and wary of Iran’s political and sectarian influence in the region. However, the opening of Iran’s economy would allow significant opportunities for trade and investment, especially in Dubai, which has historically enjoyed a strong trade relationship across the Gulf.