As is its wont, the IMF focuses on the positives. The government is credited with maintaining a low fiscal deficit - only 0.9 per cent in 2002 - and with establishing the oil-revenue savings account to insulate income from the vagaries of world oil prices. The move from a fixed exchange rate to a managed float meets with approval, as does Sudan’s relatively open trade regime: WTO accession is envisaged in five years. Less progress has been made on strengthening the tax regime, the IMF says.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth was strong in 2002 at 5.5 per cent, although marginally slower than in 2001 in light of drought and industrial bottlenecks. Accelerated growth is predicted in 2003, primarily on the back of non-oil growth. The oil sector boom of 2002, which saw growth of 24.7 per cent, will slow to some 14 per cent, the report forecasts.

The IMF holds out the prospect of an international donors’ conference to assist in reconstruction, in the event that the ongoing peace negotiations reach a successful conclusion. An agreement on 21 December on the division of oil revenues between the southern rebels and the government has raised hopes of a settlement.

Sudan: selected economic indicators, 2000-2002

Production and prices (%)

2000200120022003*

Real GDP growth6.96.15.55.8

Average inflation8.04.98.37.0

External Sector ($ ‘000 million)

Exports, fob1.91.71.92.4

Imports, fob1.62.02.22.5

Financial variables (% of GDP)

Total revenue11.511.813.218.3

Total expenditure12.412.814.117.6

Overall balance-0.8-1.0-0.90.7

*projected

Source: IMF