Impact of falling oil prices on Kuwait

17 December 2014

Kuwait’s low budget breakeven price of $52.3 a barrel and its hefty sovereign wealth fund makes it the best prepared out of any Gulf nation to face a prolonged period of depressed oil prices, according to Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s rating Aa2

IMF budget breakeven oil price for 2014 $52.3

Size of project market $211.1bn

Key number: Kuwait’s sovereign wealth funds are worth $548bn

In the wake of the November Opec meeting, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank has forecast a fiscal surplus for Kuwait in both 2015 and 2016.

In the unlikely event that Kuwait does end up running a deficit, it has $548bn in savings to dip into in the form of the General Reserve Fund and the Reserve for Future Generations.

Kuwait started its sovereign wealth fund as an account with the Bank of England in 1953 and currently transfers 25 per cent of all oil revenue into the future generations fund on an annual basis.

Although its finances are robust, several senior officials have spoken out ahead of its 2015 budget announcement, warning that subsidy cuts need to be implemented. It remains to be seen whether these reforms will materialise.

“The key difference between Kuwait and the rest of the GCC [when it comes to announcements on spending cuts] is that Kuwait has the most advanced democratic system,” says a senior economic analyst who covers the Gulf region.

“They have an elected parliament that questions the government frequently, especially on the reserves issue. This has led to more a visible discussion of subsidy reforms.”

Whether the statements about cuts will be reflected in the spending plan remains to be seen, as does whether Kuwait will successfully execute its budget.

Last year, as in other years, the government failed to spend the KD21.2bn ($72.6bn) it had budgeted due to political wranglings delaying investments and project approvals.

Moody’s ratings
AaaRated as the highest quality and lowest credit risk.Prime-1 Best ability to repay short-term debt
Aa1Rated as high quality and very low credit risk.
Aa2
Aa3
A1Rated as upper-medium grade and low credit risk. 
A2Prime-1/Prime-2 Best ability or high ability to repay short-term debt
A3 
Baa1Rated as medium grade, with some speculative elements and moderate credit risk.Prime-2 High ability to repay short term debt
Baa2Prime-2/Prime-3 High ability or acceptable ability to repay short-term debt
Baa3Prime-3 Acceptable ability to repay short-term debt
Source: Moody’s

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