Impact of falling oil prices on Qatar

17 December 2014

Qatar has made it clear it is planning to sustain a high level of spending over the course of 2015

Moody’s rating Aa2

IMF budget breakeven oil price for 2014 $71.1

Size of project market $287.1

Key number: $64bn in projects was due to be awarded in 2014

Speaking in November, Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani said that the state’s budget would not be affected by the slide in prices.

“We are currently facing a decline in the price of oil and fuel… I just would like to emphasise here that our economy is strong and solid, [and] will not be affected by such developments… our budget is based on a very conservative estimate of the price of fuel,” Sheikh Tamim told the country’s Shura Council.

Healthy surpluses clocked up over recent years, along with a population of just 2.2 million, means the country has significant spending power to back up its promises.

Although total spending is likely to increase in 2015 compared with 2014, Qatar’s leaders have signalled their intention to take on some of the country’s most inefficient subsidies.

Sheikh Tamim also told the Shura Council that “waste and extravagance… must be eradicated, whether oil prices are high or low.”

Due to its generous subsidy system, Qatar has seen some of the fastest increases in energy demand in the GCC over recent years.

In the wake of November’s Opec meeting, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank said there is a possibility of marginal growth in real non-oil GDP thanks to strong project awards in 2014.

A total of $64bn-worth of projects was due to be awarded in 2014, according to regional project tracking service MEED Projects.

Moody’s ratings
AaaRated as the highest quality and lowest credit risk.Prime-1 Best ability to repay short-term debt
Aa1Rated as high quality and very low credit risk.
Aa2
Aa3
A1Rated as upper-medium grade and low credit risk. 
A2Prime-1/Prime-2 Best ability or high ability to repay short-term debt
A3 
Baa1Rated as medium grade, with some speculative elements and moderate credit risk.Prime-2 High ability to repay short term debt
Baa2Prime-2/Prime-3 High ability or acceptable ability to repay short-term debt
Baa3Prime-3 Acceptable ability to repay short-term debt
Source: Moody’s

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