Indecision threatens rail projects

29 June 2016

Standoff between budget and priorities to likely persist

Details are scarce in terms of the outcome of the recently concluded extraordinary meeting among the GCC region’s transport and communications ministers.

Apart from a call to prioritise the rail projects that will interconnect the six GCC states, a new timeline for the completion of the regional railway was not released, much to the disappointment of many.

It is not a far-fetched scenario that the key decision makers did not come to a mutual agreement in terms of how and when to proceed with their country segments of the regional railway network. This comes as no surprise given that final budget approvals are usually beyond the transport ministers’ mandate.

This indecision is also expected to a certain extent given the ongoing transport sector restructuring across the region.

It would have been the first transport ministers meeting attended by Suleiman al-Hamdan in his new capacity as transport minister of Saudi Arabia and head of the Saudi Railway Company (SAR).

The ongoing restructuring in the kingdom’s transport sector is being closely watched as billion dollars-worth of mainline and urban rail projects are currently awaiting final government approval.

In Kuwait, the administration, planning and operations of all land-based transportation infrastructure are currently being transferred from the Ministry of Communications (MOC) to the Public Authority for Roads and Land Transport (PART). The intention is to replicate the model adopted by Dubai’s Road and Transport Authority (RTA).

The UAE Cabinet has also recently approved the restructuring of the Etihad Railway board of directors, although no further detail has been disclosed in terms of the extent of the restructuring.

These changes indicate that the current oil price volatility is ultimately inducing government leaders to push for efficiency, which includes leaner and hopefully more agile transport agencies and committees.

The efficiency drive means jobs will continue to be at stake at least over the short-term and investment decisions will be done with extreme caution. Contractors and consultants will have to deal with uncertainty over the next few months and even years as business cases for the various mainline and urban rail schemes are being reviewed in terms of their economic viability.

The lack of precedence and expertise in terms of financing these types of projects in the region will not help either.

Those who have completed a boom-bust cycle in the region’s projects sector are likely less inundated by the general lack of clarity or communication in terms of the status of projects. Those who are actively involved in projects like the Riyadh Metro, Doha Metro and the soon-to-be-awarded Dubai Route 2020 are also probably less worried compared to those awaiting new contract awards.

Indeed it now appears that the next six months will be a decisive period that will determine whether the rest of the contractors and consultants  will continue to hold out hope for new contract awards or start allocating resources elsewhere, with Iran being the most likely option. So far none of the choices look easy or promising.

 

 

 

 

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