Introduction: Squeezing the margins

18 February 2005
Where only a few years ago the Gulf construction boom was a secret shared by a select group of contractors, today investors and businesses the world over are in awe of the rapid pace of change in the GCC.

The attention is mainly on Dubai, which has been aggressively marketing its new beaches, towers, hotels and shopping malls to the outside world. Showy developments such as the three Palm projects, Burj Dubai and the contents of Dubailand have captured headlines and imaginations abroad (see pages 42-45). But in a less demonstrative fashion, the other countries of the Gulf are enjoying an equally busy period of expansion. Emails regularly circulate the business and expatriate communities of Bahrain and Doha showing 'before and after' shots - one of the desert, the other of skyscrapers - that illustrate the changes that have taken place in the last decade. The prevailing mood is one of optimism and excitement, but there is, all the same, a febrile edge to the party atmosphere. It is inevitable that at some point people will begin to question whether they are living in a sustainable boom or a speculative bubble. And a degree of caution is wise. For more than two years, government spending has ridden on the back of sky-high oil prices and the sort of income levels that have not been seen for a generation. But energy markets are inherently volatile, and hardly provide firm foundations on which to build an economy. Similarly, the relaxation of property ownership laws has led to a brisk trade in apartments and apartment blocks before they are even built, but there is no guarantee anyone will ever live in them. To some extent, the construction market is beginning to regulate its own pace of development. Overall construction costs have risen by as much as 15 per cent in the last year in some cities, squeezing the margins of many contractors and bringing others close to the edge of bankruptcy. There is some relief at hand - some $3,000 million of extra cement production capacity is being built in the Middle East, and low-cost producers in countries such as Egypt are benefiting from the emergence of a regional market, a rarity in the industry. But it will be some time before this additional capacity comes on line, and in the meantime clients will come under increasing pressure to meet contractors halfway if their projects are ever to see the light of day. The year promises to be one of the busiest on record for the regional construction industry, and one of the toughest.

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