With an estimated $41bn worth of projects planned or under way, on paper Iraq is leading the region’s drive for new refinery capacity additions. The value is even higher than in Saudi Arabia with an estimated $38bn worth of downstream projects, according to data from MEED Projects.

The key difference, however, is that in Saudi Arabia’s case, out of its total projects more than $17bn in contracts have already been signed and work is progressing. For Iraq, this figure is only $3.6bn, less than 9 per cent of the total.

Figures in the UAE and Kuwait represent another example of this contrast between state-led plans and actual awards in the sector. State-run Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) has ambitious plans for two major projects; the $16bn Clean Fuels Project, which will overhaul the country’s existing refineries, and the New Refinery Project at Al-Zour. Together the schemes are worth almost $30bn. Only $356m worth of contracts have been signed however, covering fire protection at the refineries and preparatory works for the clean fuels project.

This represents only 1.5 per cent of the estimated total budget for downstream contracts. Compare this to the UAE where $10.8bn in contracts have been awarded, around 37 per cent out of a planned total estimated at $26bn.

In Bahrain, Oman and Qatar, ambitions are more modest, at less than $10bn each and with no contracts awarded yet.

Delving a little deeper into the figures for Iraq’s refining plans is revealing. Out of $33.7bn worth of planned projects, an estimated $23.7bn worth are in the design stage. Only one project, for flare reduction and waste water treatment at the Daura Refinery worth $50m, has been tendered for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) bids. A further $10bn worth of projects are still in the design stage.

Front-end engineering and design (Feed) contracts were awarded in 2008 and 2009 for four major new refineries, at Kirkuk, Nasiriyah, Missan and Kerbala, all of which have now been completed. Of these, only the 300,000 barrel a day (b/d) Nasiriyah refinery is likely to proceed, and only because it has now been prioritised by the Oil Ministry in Baghdad which has tied its development to the upstream Nasiriyah oil field. A bid round for the $12-13bn integrated development will be launched in December this year.

While Baghdad has only awarded $600m in contracts, for the upgrade of the Basra Refinery, the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) by contrast has pushed ahead with its own downstream plans, awarding $3bn. This deal, signed in mid-2009 with the local KAR Group covers the third stage expansion of the 185,000 b/d Bazian refinery near Erbil. The refinery is due for completion by May 2014. By then, Iraq may still be choosing a developer for the Nasiriyah project.