Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) hopes to increase crude oil supplies by 65 per cent to more than 1.35 million barrels a day (b/d) by the end of 2012.

An NOC document distributed to potential customers, released by Reuters news agency, shows that production by the end of December from 9 onshore and two offshore fields should reach 813,000 b/d.

This will increase to 993,000 b/d by March 2012 and hit 1.2 million b/d by the middle of the year. By the end of 2012, production is forecast to reach 1.345 million b/d.

The largest increase is expected to come from the El-Shahara field in the southwest of the country, operated by Spain’s Repsol, which is forecast to return to supplying 200,000 b/d in 2012. The field had a capacity of 290,000 b/d before the civil war erupted in March.

Production was restarted in early October and export supplies should rise to 80,000 b/d by the end of 2011.  

Analysts and industry executives say the country’s oil production should hit 1 million b/d within a year in line with forecasts made by Ali Tarhouni, the current minister of oil and finance at the National Transitional Council (NTC). The NTC says state-run companies are already producing 500,000 b/d. Most of the damage caused to the oil sector occurred in offsite facilities, leaving most facilities and pipelines in a relatively decent state of repair (MEED 27:10:11).

Fieldname* Dec-11 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 % change
Al-Jurf (offshore) 40 40 40 40 40                        –  
Amna 155 170 175 175 175                       13
Bouri (offshore) 30 40 40 40 40                       33
Brega 50 80 80 80 80                       60
Bu Attifel 85 90 100 105 115                       35
Es Sider 0 135 275 370 375  na 
Melitha 75 115 135 135 135                       80
Sarir 210 50 60 70 70 –                    67
Sertica 43 53 53 55 55                       28
El-Shahara 80 170 195 200 200                    150
Zueitina 45 50 55 60 60                       33
Total 813 993 1208 1330 1345                       65
             
*=Oil figures in thousand barrels. Source: NOC