Libya forecasts oil supplies at 1.3 million barrels by 2012

15 November 2011

Exports to hit 800,000 barrels a day by end of 2011

Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) hopes to increase crude oil supplies by 65 per cent to more than 1.35 million barrels a day (b/d) by the end of 2012.

An NOC document distributed to potential customers, released by Reuters news agency, shows that production by the end of December from 9 onshore and two offshore fields should reach 813,000 b/d.

This will increase to 993,000 b/d by March 2012 and hit 1.2 million b/d by the middle of the year. By the end of 2012, production is forecast to reach 1.345 million b/d.

The largest increase is expected to come from the El-Shahara field in the southwest of the country, operated by Spain’s Repsol, which is forecast to return to supplying 200,000 b/d in 2012. The field had a capacity of 290,000 b/d before the civil war erupted in March.

Production was restarted in early October and export supplies should rise to 80,000 b/d by the end of 2011.  

Analysts and industry executives say the country’s oil production should hit 1 million b/d within a year in line with forecasts made by Ali Tarhouni, the current minister of oil and finance at the National Transitional Council (NTC). The NTC says state-run companies are already producing 500,000 b/d. Most of the damage caused to the oil sector occurred in offsite facilities, leaving most facilities and pipelines in a relatively decent state of repair (MEED 27:10:11).

Fieldname*Dec-11Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012% change
Al-Jurf (offshore)4040404040                       -  
Amna155170175175175                      13
Bouri (offshore)3040404040                      33
Brega5080808080                      60
Bu Attifel8590100105115                      35
Es Sider0135275370375 na 
Melitha75115135135135                      80
Sarir21050607070-                    67
Sertica4353535555                      28
El-Shahara80170195200200                   150
Zueitina4550556060                      33
Total813993120813301345                      65
       
*=Oil figures in thousand barrels. Source: NOC      

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