Bahrain’s political standoff between its Sunni and Shia communities is poised to deteriorate further over the coming month. On 20-22 April, the Formula One Grand Prix will take place in the country for the first time in two years after pro-democracy protests led to last year’s event being cancelled.

Opposition activists are planning to disrupt the race to get the attention of the international media. Tensions escalated further following the death of a protester on 31 March who was shot from an unmarked car accompanying security forces. It was the first time live ammunition has been used since early last year.

More worrying are signs that both the ruling Sunni Al-Khalifa family and Al-Wefaq, the main Shia opposition group, are losing influence over their traditional support bases. Increasingly radical elements on either side threaten the ability of the two main interlocutors to negotiate a deal to bring the protests to an end. Hardline Sunnis refuse to see any need to compromise with a movement they see as sponsored by Iran. A growing number of Shias now demand the removal of the royal family.

It is not just an international sporting event that threatens to be disrupted by the worsening political environment. Bahrain’s economy is also suffering. This year, it will be the weakest economy in the GCC. For the past five years, the economy has been in deficit and Manama now needs oil to be about $120 a barrel to balance the budget.

Until a political settlement is agreed, the economy, like the people of Bahrain, will continue to suffer. Unfortunately, after more than a year of protests, that still seems a long way off.