While non-Opec decline rates have improved, OPEC production has been facing the opposite problem, according to a report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The IEA estimates that Opec's existing production base is declining at a rate of 4.5% per year, compared to 3.9% a year ago, and 3.3% the year prior. Key drivers of falling output rates in OPEC include Saudi Arabia, who has not added a major new project since the massive 1.2 million Khurais field in 2009, and Iran. The rise in Opec decline rates comes as a result of sanctions, geopolitical risks, mature basins and negative real interest rates.
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