Opec looks increasingly likely to agree to extend the agreement to cooperate on reducing oil production for a further nine months until the end of March 2017.

Production cuts were expected to be extended by six months, but the likelihood of a longer agreement has given the market more confidence that the push could significantly reduce global oversupply.

The Brent price rose above $50 a barrel when the news emerged on 10 May after a period of largely sub-$50 prices from 21 April.

Statements from Opec governments and media reports have backed up expectations of a widespread oil production cut led by the world’s largest crude exporter Saudi Arabia.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on 16 May in a news conference broadcast on state television that “Iraq is with the continuation of a reduction of oil production of Opec nations and we will push in that direction”.

The statement after an agreement by Saudi Arabia and Russia – the largest non-Opec producer taking part in production cuts in the first half of 2017 – to extend the agreement by nine months.

Opec’s third largest producer Iran is also said to be in favour of the agreement. Iran was not subject to the stringent production cuts of other large Opec producers when the first agreement was signed on 30 November 2016.

The oil ministers of Opec producer Kuwait and the Middle East’s largest non-Opec producer Oman also added their support to the nine-month cuts extension this week.

Its exception was down to Iran’s oil sector recovering from a period international sanctions as it pushed back toward a level of about 4 million barrels a-day (b/d). Iran’s output has stabilised at about 3.8 million b/d in the first four months of 2017, according to Opec estimates based on secondary sources.

The Brent crude price closed at $51.65 a barrel on 16 May.