Fears of gasoline shortages ahead of the US driving season were already putting upward pressure on prices and data released on 3 March by the US Department of Energy provided little respite. Crude stocks built by 2 million barrels in the week to 27 February, but stocks of gasoline fell by a further 0.9 per cent to 202 million barrels. Supplies of reformulated gasoline are now 22 per cent lower than at the corresponding point in 2003.

In light of the high prices that have prevailed for several months, consumers - the US in particular - have been strongly critical of OPEC's insistence that the output cut will go ahead in April. 'OPEC should take into account that the market is not well supplied,' said Claude Mandil, head of the International Energy Agency, on 1 March. 'Oil prices are much too high and it's bad for the economy, bad for consuming countries and not very good for producing countries either.'

OPEC members show no signs of heeding the warning. Serial quota violators Algeria and Nigeria in late February instructed international oil companies working in their respective oil industries to reduce production in line with the revised output quotas.

Events in Venezuela are adding instability to the market once more. Embattled President Hugo Chavez issued a threat in late February to cut supplies to the US, accusing Washington of conspiring with his opponents to undermine his regime. Within Venezuela, electoral officials ruled that an insufficient number of signatures were collected to force a referendum on Chavez's rule, sparking riots in Caracas. Venezuelan production remains short of the country's OPEC quota, as it has been since the strike that crippled state oil company Petroleos de Venezuelain late 2002.