Reforming the region

26 December 2004
Politics
Politics

The Bush administration enters its second term as the undisputed prime mover in the politics of the Middle East. Through a mixture of violence and threats, cajolery and aid, the US has prosecuted an intrusive foreign policy over the last three years, with a twin focus on the battle against militant Islam and the campaign to spread its brand of democracy in the region.

2005 will see this policy put to the test. Crucial first-time elections are due in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and equally critical presidential polls are approaching in Egypt, Iran and the Occupied Territories. The legacy of President Bush's first term in office - one of near-civil war in Iraq and a collapsed Israeli-Palestinian peace process - will be at the forefront of the minds of voters. By association, secular, pro-Western candidates are likely to fare less well than their religiously conservative counterparts, so the results are unlikely to be well received in Washington.

As US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is fond of saying, democracy is a messy business. And with the exception of Iraq (see box), nowhere is the process likely to be more of a mess than in Iran. While the schedule for presidential elections has yet to be decided - the most likely date is in late May or early June - Mohammed Khatami reaches the end of his tenure on 2 August. Hopes of a reformist victory are not high, partly due to voter apathy, partly due to the influence of the conservative Guardian Council, which used its power of veto to exclude candidates from the 2004 parliamentary election and is likely to do the same this summer. Iran has since seen a gradual coarsening in its dealings with the outside world.

US aggression has played a part in fostering this siege mentality. Washington, which favours a policy of containment rather than rapprochement, is still at odds with the EU and UN on how to deal with the Islamic republic - with its nuclear programme, with the influence of its Shia clergy in Afghanistan and the northern Gulf, with its support for armed groups such as Hezbollah. Of particular concern to the US is possible Iranian interference in neighbouring Iraq, where Republican policymakers have staked their reputations on bringing about a democratic transition to sovereign government. European diplomacy can be credited with bringing Libya in from the cold in 2004, but unless the US softens its stance Iran is unlikely to follow suit in 2005.

Both elections will be watched with concern by the Gulf states, several of which have sizeable Shia populations. Whatever their opinion of Saddam Hussein, Arab governments will have been tempted to share his view of Iraq as a buffer state, and a Sunni-dominated one at that.

The coming months will see a number of GCC states hosting their own elections. Qatar in particular has grasped the nettle of political reform. While cynics have accused the ruling Al-Thani dynasty of using the Al-Jazeera satellite channel as a political fig leaf, the principle of freedom of speech appears genuinely to have sunk in, with open debate seemingly actively encouraged by the royal family. Following the promulgation of a Qatari constitution in June, general elections are due to be held in the second half of 2005. This is only the first step towards an elected parliament, however, and a fairly tentative one at that. The poll will see only half of the national consultative council elected to their seats, and there is unlikely to be much disruption to the executive process - unlike Bahrain and Kuwait, Qatar has no history of political opposition to speak of.

By regional standards, however, Doha is blazing the trail. In its path follows Saudi Arabia, which watched the Qatari experiment with municipal council elections in 1999 with great interest and is preparing to implement its own in 2005. With creeping unemployment in its fast-growing cities and the constan

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