Special Report: Capital Markets - Downturn exposes investors' weaknesses

31 July 2009

The past 12 months has been a torrid time for GCC stock markets, which collectively lost more than 40 per cent of their value over the period. Today, their total market capitalisation is $655bn - $500bn less than a year ago.

One of the main reasons for the sharp fall is the reduction in bank lending, which forced many investors to sell shares to raise much-needed funds.

But it was compounded by the trading strategies adopted by many investors, of buying shares only when the market is rising and selling when it falls. In this way, the financial turmoil has served to highlight the lack of sophistication in GCC markets.

There are some signs of life, particularly in the debt markets, with more than $15bn worth of bonds issued in the Gulf over the past three months. Given the continued shortage of bank lending, raising money through debt capital markets has become increasingly attractive for companies.

There are fewer reasons for optimism in the equity markets, however, where nervous retail investors dominate.

If Gulf stock markets are to stage a long-term recovery, they will need to persuade more companies that the extra scrutiny that comes with being listed is a price worth paying for access to investors, and attract more sophisticated institutional investors.

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