Teetering on the brink iraq

26 December 2004
After 30 years without any hint of democracy Iraqis are to be given the chance to vote in no fewer than three national elections in 2005. The first, on 30 January, will be for a transitional government, which will appoint a new president and prepare a new constitution. The second poll, in October, will be a national referendum on the constitution. Then on 15 December Iraqis will be asked to vote for a fully constitutional government which will take power on 31 December 2005.

Once complete, all the necessary political building blocks - a democratically elected government, a new constitution and a unified population - will be in place to enable the country to prosper from its much-vaunted natural and human resources. At least in US eyes.

With its job done, the bulk of the occupying forces of the US-led coalition will withdraw, handing over to Iraq's new security services and, possibly, a multinational UN peacekeeping force. The withdrawal will remove the focus of the insurgency and resistance will wither away. By 2010, the country will be re-established as a regional powerhouse. With booming oil and gas exports and a robust financial services sector underpinning a vibrant private sector, Iraq will be a beacon, inspiring political and economic reform across the region.

Of course, much of the above was supposed to happen in 2003. And then again in 2004. And even if Washington succeeds in delivering all three polls in 2005, the resulting shift in power to the country's 65 per cent Shia majority - the government will be elected using strict proportional representation - and the fear of growing influence from Tehran is certain to spark ongoing resistance from Sunni and Kurdish factions and Saddam loyalists.

Miracle

The reality is that it will be a minor miracle if the interim government of Iyad Allawi is even able to deliver the first poll in January. Allawi himself warned in mid-December that the militants would increase their activity, and in the first week of campaigning since the election race was launched on 15 December, nearly 100 people have been murdered by terrorist attacks aimed at disrupting the poll.

Shia leaders, fearing that attempts to spark a civil war could derail their path to power, are warning against revenge attacks, but the provocation is likely to continue. Sunni leaders have threatened to boycott the elections in protest against the US-led offensive in the Sunni city of Fallujah in November. They also warn that continued clashes between US troops and insurgents in Sunni areas could prevent people from voting. Some have called for the elections to be postponed.

The most likely outcome for 2005, is that by the end of the year, Iraq will have a new constitution as well as a new government. But it will remain an occupied land. Economic and physical reconstruction is likely to remain blighted by terrorist attacks. By the end of 2005, the promised economic boom is likely to remain a distant dream.

Richard Thompson

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