The great Kuwait debate

06 June 2003
Every July, as the mercury soars to oppressive levels, the doors of the National Assembly (parliament) are shut for a three-month period. This summer it will be different. On 5 July, about 126,000 male nationals will elect 50 new members to its parliament. A fortnight later, the 10th assembly is scheduled to hold its debut session. Amid thunderous applause and the waving of oath documents by elected members of parliament (MPs), the Emir Sheikh Jaber al-Ahmed al-Sabah will deliver a welcome address. At stake, will be the political future of the Gulf state.

There is no shortage of pressing issues, and Kuwait has to defend its increasingly tarnished reputation for forward thinking - it was the first state in the Gulf to set up a planning council, a free zone, social security, a parliament and the first to conduct elections.

The polls should not be solely viewed as yet another exercise in the democratisation process. Many are hoping the election will kick-start a major economic reform programme. For much of the last four years, poor relations between the government and parliament have led to stagnation in a number of key areas. The prospect of new MPs brings the hope of new attitudes towards key pieces of proposed legislation.

Few subjects will attract more attention than Project Kuwait and the privatisation programme. A bill to allow the part-sale of government stakes in 72 ventures and relentless efforts to open up the state's upstream oil sector to international oil companies (IOCs) has been gathering dust in parliament for some time and, so far, little has been achieved.

'They should do away with day-to-day bickering and rivalries and adopt a global outlook to take Kuwait forward,' says an experienced local businessman in Kuwait City. 'There is an urgent need to focus on the interest of our citizens. Lawmakers will have a wide canvas to paint on. Economic changes should be high on the agenda.'

Abdulwahab Rashed al-Haroon, a sitting MP and a contestant for the second constituency (Mirqab and Abdullah al-Salem), agrees. 'My agenda will be economic reforms. Besides privatisation, we need changes in the tax laws of 1959 and the initiation of a foreign direct investment law,' he says.

An emerging issue on the domestic front - offering employment to a burgeoning national workforce - will put pressure on the government to bring about changes in the economy. The growth in the indigenous labour force is more than 1.5 times the growth in the total population, the Public Authority for Civil Information says in a December report. Statistically, the annual growth rate in the Kuwaiti population is 3.2 per cent, while that of fresh graduates is estimated to be 5.6 per cent.

There are other issues too that will decide the fate of the candidates: relations with Iraq under a new regime and Kuwait's efforts to emerge as the launch pad for reconstruction works; providing adequate levels of housing and education; governmental corruption and inefficiency; internal security and countering the threat from Al-Qaeda; the granting of the franchise to women and allowing them to stand in future elections; and the naturalisation of about 2,000 bidouns.

From a macroeconomic perspective, any renewed reform momentum will be well timed. Booming oil revenues over the last three years have put government finances on a very strong footing and the country is awash with liquidity. Budget surpluses have ranged from $7,000 million-14,000 million over the last three years and international investments are big enough to bring substantial comfort.

Politically too, the timing of the elections could hardly be better. The destruction of Saddam Hussein's regime in neighbouring Baghdad has put to rest 13-year-old apprehensions of a re-occupation of Kuwait. 'There is a great deal of psychological relief. The mood is of change. The state is now expected to announce major development schemes,' says a western diplomat.

Within weeks of coalition troops entering Baghdad, the Public Works Ministry unveiled a major scheme to build a new township at Al-Khiran on the Saudi border. The support of contractors has also been enlisted for two major schemes to set up tourism and leisure facilities on two islands off Umm Qasr and about $1,500 million is planned for investment at Bubiyan and Failaka.

However, the massing of US forces in Kuwait has created new tensions. In late 2002, the killing of a US marine on Failaka confirmed growing fears of Al-Qaeda operations in the country. Further attacks against US interests have forced the Interior Ministry to reassess the domestic terrorist threat. The message was clear - there is growing opposition to the US military presence in some sections of Kuwait society, and this opposition is becoming more radical. 'Fear of domination by the US in the post-war scenario and what it means for our internal security will be another electoral issue,' says Yahya al-Sumait, a former Housing Minister and MP.

It is not dominance of the US alone that will be an issue at the hustings. Controversy is likely to be created by the thorny question of electoral reform: at the top of the agenda is the issue of granting the adult franchise to women.

The first article of the 1962 electoral law granted women political rights. However, in reality, the scenario has been rather different. In November 1999, MPs rejected a bill supported by the Emir that would allow women to vote and contest elections. The majority view was that it was against the tenets of Islam. 'Islam says women cannot govern men. But contesting elections is different. MPs are not thinking rationally and are overlooking Islam,' says Al-Sumait.

Rola Dashti, member of Kuwait Economic Society and a leading activist, has a different view. 'It is pure politics. They think it is a men's club. Women are allowed to vote in Indonesia, Pakistan, Qatar and Bahrain. The issue of Islam has been abused.'

Along with granting political rights to women, lawmakers will also have to contend with another issue: the impact on Kuwait of the growing influence of Shias in neighbouring Iraq. '[Kuwaiti] bidouns have strong links with Shia in south and southeast Iraq and this is set to grow,' says an analyst. At present, 80 per cent of Muslims in Kuwait are Sunnis. However, concern is expressed over long-term interests. Al-Haroon brushes aside such worries: 'It [the growing Shiite influence] will not have an impact. We do not want to bring this issue into elections.'

Speculation on the composition of the new National Assembly is broad. In the last election, Islamist and liberal candidates made strong inroads at the expense of government supporters. In 2003, candidates representing at least 12 political blocks will compete for the 50 seats (see table). Independent analysts have identified four key seats - Ahmadi, Farwaniya, Rumaithia and Hawally - representing a total of 25.5 per cent of the total votes. 'We expect a mixed flavour. Every election has thrown up 40-50 per cent new faces,' says Al-Haroon. 'We hope to see young faces in the new assembly.'

The election of youth into parliament is matched by a desire for younger members of the ruling Al-Sabah family to take responsibility. The age and failing health of both the Emir Sheikh Jaber and Crown Prince Sheikh Saad al-Abdullah al-Salem al-Sabah, has brought the succession question into focus. Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, has been a powerful force for some four years now and often seems the decisive voice of government. Others, such as Finance Minister Sheikh Mohammed Sabah al-Sabah, acting Oil Minister and Information Minister Sheikh Ahmed al-Fahad al-Sabah and Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Mohammed al-Khaled al-Sabah, are prominent in the ruling family's next generation. There is undoubtedly more jostling to come.

The change, if it does happen, will come at a time of major political reform in two other Gulf states: Qatar and Bahrain. Kuwait has taken the lead in the past, but it could find it increasingly difficult to maintain its position. Over the next month the electorate will have to decide in which direction the country's future lies.

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