Happily, the answer is not yet. The event had been staged by Dubai Customs as part of the emirate's incongruous 'Ice Surprises' week. But as water scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) reaches crisis proportions, the region's authorities increasingly have to turn to ever more radical methods to ensure that supplies do not run out.

Despite endless repetition, the statistics still have shock value: home to 5 per cent of the world's population, the MENA region has access to less than 1 per cent of global fresh water resources. And unless dramatic steps are taken, the problem can only get worse.

Almost all the region's existing water resources have been developed and are being exploited at an unsustainable rate. Depletion of non-renewable groundwater is continuing unchecked and saltwater is contaminating coastal aquifers. Climate change is reducing the already paltry levels of rainfall so the rate of recharge for renewable resources is also declining. Compounding the problem is the region's rapid population growth, which threatens to stretch per capita water availability to intolerable levels. Already MENA residents have access to an average of only 1,200 cubic metres a year (cm/y) of water, almost six times below the world average. By 2025, the World Bank warns, this could drop to as little as 500 cm/y.

As conventional water resources dwindle to a trickle, the GCC states are stepping up efforts to boost availability through desalinisation. The process has had a long and successful history in the region, which operates more than half the world's total desalination capacity. In Kuwait and Qatar, desalinated water already accounts for all potable water supplies, and for at least half the household supply in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. However, in recent years it is Abu Dhabi that has taken the lead in Gulf desalination. Since 1999, the emirate has doubled desalination capacity to 400 million gallons a day (g/d) and it is gearing up to launch the region's first independent water plant - the 50 million-g/d Taweelah reverse osmosis (RO) scheme.

The choice of RO technology is a sign that the process is making something of a comeback in the Gulf. 'Initial experiences with RO were not that successful,' says Koussai Quteishat, director of the Muscat-based Middle East Desalination Research Centre (MEDRC). 'The process was more expensive than other systems and did not work well in the high salinity of the Gulf. However, the technology has since evolved, enabling significant cost reductions. The revolutionary concept is the addition of RO plants to new or existing thermal facilities in a hybrid system.' The Middle East's first hybrid plant, at Fujairah in the UAE, is under commissioning.

The switch to membrane systems for pre-treatment of the feed water for RO plants, rather than the traditional sand filtration techniques, not only means facilities use less land, but also allows for greater selectivity in removing impurities. Moreover, the improved quality of the feed water enhances the lifespan of RO plants, increasing their long-term cost-effectiveness.

'Improved pre-treatment is helping drive down the operation cost for RO desalination,' says Quteishat. 'The average cost for a cubic metre of desalinated water is no longer anywhere near the $1 bracket - it has dropped down to around $0.60 - and will fall further still as research continues.'

Falling prices and strong demand are an appealing combination for drawing the private sector into the Gulf's desalination industry. With estimated investment of $37,000 million needed to meet the Gulf's desalination requirements by 2030, governments are hoping private developers will relieve them of much of the financial burden. Progress, however, has been sporadic. 'Demand and cost are not the only factors developers consider in private initiatives - the regulatory framework and economic environment are also extremely important,' says Quteishat. 'So far, Abu Dhabi is the only real success story for private desalination in the Gulf. The simple formula, whereby ADWEA [Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Authority] takes 60 per cent of the project equity and covers an offtake agreement for the plant on a take-or-pay basis along with a fixed internal rate of return, is proving very popular with private partners.'

Quteishat is confident that other GCC states will soon be joining Abu Dhabi in harnessing private finance. 'Oman has brought in private developers and is pursuing a number of BOT [build-operate-transfer] and even BOO [build-own-operate] schemes, while Saudi Arabia is also pushing hard.'

The situation in the kingdom is particularly acute. Domestic and industrial water demand is expected to double to 10 million cubic metres a day (cm/d) by 2010, with desalination required to meet all of the additional capacity. Says Quteishat: 'There are major changes afoot in Saudi Arabia, and the creation of a water ministry is an important first step in encouraging private capital into the sector.'

The kingdom's commitment to private involvement was underscored in late July, when international developers were invited to submit expressions of interest for the country's first independent water and power project (IWPP) at Shouaiba. The plant, with desalination capacity of 176 million g/d, is the first of four IWPPs planned by the Saline Water Conversion Corporation - the world's largest producer of desalinated water - in partnership with Saudi Electricity Company.

With alternative methods of boosting water supply so limited, desalination looks set to make greater advances elsewhere in the region. 'Desalination is going to be a matter of fact in MENA,' says Quteishat. 'Existing water supply in the region is already insufficient to meet current demand. As needs rise, increasing volumes will have to be provided by desalination, which only plays a relatively minor role at present.'

Algeria and Libya, both of which have access to cheap and plentiful energy feedstock, have unveiled ambitious plans to boost their meagre desalination programmes. Progress has been slow on Tripoli's plans to double capacity to 600,000 cm/d by 2006, while the Algiers government has taken significant steps towards enhancing its existing desalination capacity of 200,000 cm/d since unveiling an emergency short-term plan last year. Contracts have already been signed for the construction of an IWPP in Arzew, which will process 88,000 cm/d of water, and technical bids are under evaluation for a 200,000-cm/d RO plant at Hamma. Two further plants are planned for the cities of Algiers and Skikda, adding a further 300,000 cm/d.

However, yet more is required. MEDRC forecasts that Algeria's water demand will reach 4 million cm/d by 2010 and estimates that about 1.5 million cm/d will have to be provided through desalination.

Despite the statistics, which suggest that water supply from the Nile will be sufficient to sustain Egypt's growing population until 2025, Quteishat maintains that Egypt, too, is a candidate for desalination. 'If you look behind the figures at the geographical distribution of the population, it is clear that the transmission costs of delivering water from the Nile basin to the Sinai are prohibitive. Desalination is a more economically viable form of providing drinking water to the more remote regions of the country.'

The benefits of increasing desalination capacity in the less developed countries of the Middle East go further than purely augmenting water supply. 'The introduction of expensive and highly technical systems brings with it a need for proper management of existing water resources,' says Quteishat. 'New desalination plants can provide significant new volumes of water. However, this means nothing if the supplementary quantities are put into inadequate and corroded networks run by inefficient organisations.'

This is indeed the core of the problem for the Middle East, as the combination of old systems and low technical efficiency is exacerbating the strain on the region's water supply. Heavy subsidies and high leakage, in places as much as 60 per cent of the water supply, reduce the returns available to repair the networks, while the unrealistically low tariffs dissuade consumers from optimising water use.

Institutional factors compound the problem. The absence of integrated national water strategies promotes inefficiency and the dominance of short-term gains over long-term goals. In some countries the number of agencies involved in the allocation of water resources runs into double digits, with each body seeking to represent the interests of its own members, rather than working together to maximise water availability.

The realisation that inaction will only accelerate water shortages is spurring governments into action. Some, such as Jordan and Tunisia, are tackling the issues head on: ploughing resources into capacity building and institutional improvements as well as enhancing resource management on a practical level. Others are pinning their hopes on the private sector.

With their technical proficiency, commercial expertise and access to project finance, private companies are judged by many regional governments to be a force for change in the water management industry. Morocco has become the leading proponent of private-sector involvement, having awarded long-term management contracts for four of the kingdom's major urban centres. The agreements, ranging from 25-30 years, involve the concessionaires investing a total of $5,000 million in the utilities of Casablanca, Rabat, Tangier and Tetouan.

In the Gulf, the UAE has become the latest convert to private participation in water management, following financial close on the landmark Ajman integrated wastewater project at the start of the year. Under the terms of the deal, an international consortium is responsible for financing, building, operating and managing the network over a 27.5-year concession period. Ajman follows the successful implementation of Kuwait's Sulaibiya wastewater treatment project, the first such BOT plant in the Gulf.

But the successes have not been repeated elsewhere. In both Egypt and Tunisia, model BOT projects planned for the water sector were shelved following a lacklustre response from international bidders.

As their experience demonstrates, the role of government and international agencies in financing developments remains crucial. The World Bank is taking the lead in encouraging water resource management, funding and supporting a wealth of projects in North Africa and the Levant, where the private sector is still reluctant to enter. Over the past four decades, the bank has committed more than $6,000 million in financing water, sewerage and irrigation projects in the region. As well as working with regional water authorities in many countries to build up institutional frameworks within the sector, the bank continues to supply loans and investment for infrastructure projects, in a move designed to raise water network standards to a level that will attract private investment.

Water scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa has been a fact of life for thousands of years. But governments know that if they do not act now to improve the situation, the consequent demands on existing resources will lead to inexorable economic decline. The need for sound management of demand to sustain existing resources is imperative, but recourse to non-conventional water supplies is also essential.

By opening the sector to private investment, governments are able to share the financial burden of innovative solutions. And by improving the institutional framework through which private-sector interventions take place, governments can ensure that public services are provided at a socially acceptable cost.

Catherine Richards