Trump election may have major impact on Syrian conflict

10 November 2016

The potential for closer relations between the US president-elect and Russia’s Putin may have major consequences for the region

The selection of Donald Trump as US president-elect has raised many questions over Washington’s future relations and political and economic involvement in the Middle East and North Africa.

A key issue will be the ongoing conflict in Syria. In April this year, current US President Barack Obama approved the deployment of 250 special forces personnel from the US to Syria to train and assist militia fighters in defeating the jihadist group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (Isis) and reclaim territory.

Bar the deployment of the special forces, the US has, up to now, decided against deploying a large-scale boots-on-the-ground presence for the Syrian conflict, which has been raging since March 2011. While the US has conducted a significant amount of air strikes against Isis in Syria and Iraq, 12,354 according to official military data from early November, its involvement has been much more limited than in previous international conflicts.

A central part of the international divide on military action in Syria is the role of President Bashar al-Assad in any future government. Russia has offered unwavering support for Al-Assad to remain in power during attempts at organising negotiations between the president’s regime and rebel groups. In September 2015, Russian troops launched a heavy aerial bombardment on Isis and rebel-held areas in Syria. While Isis targets were destroyed, Russian fighter jets have also been targeting rebel forces to strengthen the position of Al-Assad’s forces.

On the opposite side, the US has consistently said Al-Assad must relinquish power if any new government is to work, and has provided rebel groups with military aid and assistance.

Trump’s relationship with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will, accordingly, play a major part in international military intervention in Syria. While Obama’s relationship with Putin has been described as frosty at best, Trump has frequently highlighted his admiration for the Russian leader and his “strong” leadership throughout the presidential campaign. Following Trump’s shock election victory, Putin was one of the first world leaders to publicly congratulate the president-elect and said he looked forward to restoring “full relations” with the US.

US-Russian relations have been at their lowest point for more than two decades following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014, with the US implementing several strict sanctions on its former Cold War nemesis.

The election of Trump will almost certainly lead to some thawing of the relations between Washington and Moscow. While the public exchanges between the Russian and future US leaders have been complimentary, the extent that ties between the two states will improve depends on the Republican party and advisers to the future US president, with many in the US government and military apparatuses very sceptical of Putin’s intentions in the Middle East and beyond.

Any convergence of views between Washington and Moscow on Al-Assad’s future or possible joint operations may have major consequences for the Syrian conflict. If the cordial relations continue after Trump assumes office in January, it could have a significant bearing on not only the Syrian conflict, but also US and Russian foreign policy across the Middle East moving forward.

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