Unity through division in Yemen

06 March 2014

Federalism could hold the key to maintaining political and economic stability in Yemen

Federalism has been mooted as a magic bullet for Yemen’s many political and economic problems. But will becoming the Arab world’s third federal state unleash political and economic competition or hasten the fragmentation of a troubled country?

It is, in the view of Yemen’s president Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, the answer to the country’s numerous troubles. Federalism, he believes, will erode the regime of his predecessor, Ali Abdullah Saleh, maintain the crumbling unity of Yemen and help rebuild the shattered economy.

He is not alone. On 21 January, delegates at Yemen’s National Dialogue Conference – a 10-month series of peace talks aimed at the creation of a new constitution – voted in favour of a federal model of government for the country. Three weeks later, a committee appointed by Hadi settled on a plan to create six self-governing regions. He is expected to issue a decree passing the decision into law before the end of March.

Stark contrast

While Libya is also in the process of moving towards a similar model, the change of national structure will make Yemen the Arab world’s third federal state, after the UAE and Iraq. The contrast between the other two is stark.

The UAE, a federation of seven largely autonomous emirates, has achieved a remarkable level of internal cohesion since its formation in 1971 – albeit thanks to the largesse provided by oil-rich Abu Dhabi to its poorer neighbours. Iraq’s experience of federalism, however, has been characterised by regional fragmentation, with the northern region of Kurdistan seceding from the union, infighting between the central government and regional authorities, sectarian conflict and legislative deadlock since its inception in 2005.

Unfortunately, the Yemen of 2014 resembles the Iraq of nine years ago far more than it does the Trucial States of the late 1960s. A little more than two years after Saleh – the country’s autocratic president of three decades – was ousted by a popular revolution and regime infighting, the country is roughly halfway through a UN-mediated political transition that has been beset by violent conflict, rising sectarianism and political squabbles. Rebel movements in the north and south that were kept at bay by the Saleh regime have gained territory, popularity and confidence at a time when the government can hardly maintain security in the capital, Sanaa.

A federal state devolves things to the areas; it lets people run themselves

Mohammed Abulahoum, Justice & Building party

There are some differences. Where Iraq’s Saddam Hussein was deposed by a US-led invasion and his Baathist regime was banished from national politics, the deal that led to Saleh’s ouster provided the former president with immunity from any crimes committed over the course of 2011. He continues to play a role in national politics as the president of the General People’s Congress (GPC), Yemen’s historical ruling party, which holds 50 per cent of cabinet seats in the country’s ‘salvation’ coalition government. Most of the remaining important government positions are taken up by Islah, the country’s main Islamic party, which was a largely willing partner to the Saleh regime until the 2011 uprising. The GPC had the biggest delegation at the dialogue conference, Islah the third-biggest.

Enduring influence

It is the continued presence of the old regime that makes federalism’s champions believe it is the only solution to the country’s many problems. Under Saleh, power was concentrated around a small elite of military, tribal and political leaders that divided up much of the country’s resources among themselves. It was this imbalance that led to the uprising, which many activists believe was upstaged by a fight within the regime itself – not for a more equitable distribution of resources, but for control of them.

“There was a winner-takes-all mentality in 2011, and that has extended to the transition,” says a Yemeni politician who backed the uprising. “We have some peace now, but the question is how do we stop them taking control again and just dividing the country’s resources among themselves?”

“Centralisation has failed over many decades, and it has failed for many reasons because we never managed to get a good central government that provides development,” says Saadadeen bin Taleb, Yemen’s trade and industry minister and another advocate of federalism. “There are also political and social arguments. The corrupt grasp of the centre has crippled and hindered development in all of Yemen. The idea is to unleash the dormant possibilities.”

Devolving power will help rebuild faith in the government, says Mohammed Abulahoum, a founder member of Justice & Building, a new centre-right party formed in the wake of the revolution. He was a delegate at the peace talks and part of the committee that decided the number of regions to be included in the new state structure.

“If you look at the previous state, there was too much centralisation, and that led to a lack of belief in the state, where everything was centred in one area, around one group,” he says. “If you try to fix that from the centre, people won’t believe in what you do. A federal state devolves things to the areas; it lets people run themselves.”

Federalism should help redress some of the economic imbalances created by the Saleh regime, says Mohammed Saleh al-Haj, a politics professor at Sanaa University. He points to the fact that until 2011, about 70 per cent of government revenues came from oil exports. The areas where most of Yemen’s oil is produced are among the poorest in the country. “It’s a shame what has happened in Al-Jawf, Mareb and Hadramout,” he says of Yemen’s biggest oil-producing regions. “They are the sources of wealth in the country but they are the poorest areas; it is unfair and it needs to change.”

There is also an existential issue at stake. Federalism is seen by many in Yemen as a last-ditch attempt to convince southerners that unity is worthwhile. The secessionist Southern Movement – better known in Yemen as Hirak – did not participate in the dialogue talks and continues to press for outright independence from the north (the socialist south and republican north merged in 1990; four years later, southerners made an abortive attempt at secession, after which they say they were marginalised by the Saleh regime). Abulahoum is hopeful that giving southerners more autonomy through federalism will help persuade them to stay in the union.

Even federalism’s biggest advocates concede that shifting from a centralised government to an autonomous administration will be a long, costly exercise strewn with potential pitfalls. “I know what the house looks like, but I don’t yet know how to build it,” says Bin Taleb.

But the previous model of centralised government has failed, says Abulahoum. “We never knew how to make it function properly. Now, the idea is moving from a semi-state to a proper state, and I think this is the real challenge.” In order to make the change, he says, Yemenis will need to take advice from other countries. Germany, a federal state, has been a keen advocate of federalism in Yemen and has backed studies on the devolution of power there. “Let’s go back to the idea of how you build the house,” he says. “You don’t have to build it all at once. You go room by room. You don’t build a state overnight; it takes 10 or 20 years, and we have to go through that process.”

Considerable resistance

There is likely to be considerable resistance to federalism, says Al-Haj. “The elite that Saleh established will lose their resources because every region will have an independent administration. They won’t have to ask Sanaa for permission to invest. So the elite think they will lose their influence.”

A media campaign has built up in recent months arguing that federalism will cause the country to collapse, “that Yemen is going to be divided like Somalia”, says Al-Haj. The campaign has been fairly effective. “Most of the Yemeni people are illiterate; they believe only what they hear in the media,” he adds.

Abulahoum is concerned, meanwhile, that Yemenis may soon lose patience in the government entirely. They endured an economic crisis in 2011 that pushed unemployment up to about 50 per cent, with poverty levels rising even higher. Since then, the government has struggled to provide security and basic services such as water, electricity, healthcare and education.

Before rolling out federalism, the government will need to remind Yemenis what it is there for in the first place, says Abulahoum. “People don’t want a banner saying we are a federal state or workshops to explain what federalism is. They want results. We need to start delivering.”

But, there is a silver lining of sorts, he adds. “There is no other way to go for Yemen but up now. We are in the basement; we have to move up.”

A MEED Subscription...

Subscribe or upgrade your current MEED.com package to support your strategic planning with the MENA region’s best source of business information. Proceed to our online shop below to find out more about the features in each package.