Iraq’s armed forces must recover the city of Tikrit by the start of winter if government credibility over its campaign to regain control over parts of the country lost to the Islamic State of Iraq & the Levant (Isis) is to be maintained, military analysts have told MEED.

The city, which sits on the Tigris River 100 miles north of Baghdad, was taken by Isis forces on 11 June, one day after they had taken Mosul, the country’s second biggest city. The Iraqi army launched its counter offensive to regain the city on 28 June.

“The Iraqi army needs to retake the city soon or it will lose it for the foreseeable future,” one military analyst told MEED, adding that the attack iscomplicated by the fact Tikrit’s population is about 250,000 people.

Tikrit lies south of Baiji, the site of an industrial complex including Iraq’s biggest oil refinery and a 1,000MW power station. Isis claimed it had captured the complex on 24 June. The government has refuted the claim, but analysts say the complex is so big that it is possible for different parts of the Baiji complex to be held by both sides.

US Navy Seals

Military analysts say Baghdad is stepping up efforts to increase the ability of the Iraqi armed forces to strike back against Isis fighters.

On 1 July, US Department of Defence said the US has 650 military personnel in the country, including US Navy Seals and US Rangers. Some are providing security assistance, with the rest serving with assessment and advisory teams at the joint operations center in Baghdad.

Their first challenge is to restructure Iraqi units tackling Isis and restore morale in order to reduce desertion. Desertion rates of up to 80 per cent were reported in Iraqi army units deployed earlier this year to Anbar province.

Military aid

Other countries are providing military aid to the Iraqi government. Iraqi television reported on 2 July that Iraqi pilots that day flew Sukhoi 25 (Su-25) Russian fighter jets for the first time. A further batch is to be delivered soon.

Iraq’s Defence Ministry posted a video on 1 July that showed the delivery of a second batch of Iranian Su-25s. During the Iraq war of 2003, seven Iraqi Su-25s were flown to Iran.

They were later joined by three more aircraft to form a squadron in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard aerospace force. Military analysts say that it is possible that Su-24 and Dassault Mirage F1 aircraft could also be returned to Iraq.

Air support

The US has agreed to supply advanced aircraft under a foreign military sales programme. Iraq’s 1st F-16IQ was formally delivered to Iraq in Fort Worth Texas in May. A group of 3-4 jets will be ferried to Iraq before the end of 2014. All 36 ordered fighters are expected to arrive by the end of 2015.

The absence of effective ground support aircraft was one of the main reasons the Iraqi army was so ineffective against ISIL fighters in Mosul and the Trigris valley this summer, military analysts say.