Yemen, the Arab World’s poorest country, has suffered through a troubled few years since the Arab Uprisings of 2011 brought it to the brink of civil war. Yet never has the country’s future seemed so bleak or uncertain.

Yemen is now without any formal leadership, while the economy collapses and security rapidly deteriorates

On 22 January, Abdrabbu Mansour al-Hadi announced he would resign the presidency after less than three years in power. Earlier the same day, Khaled Bahah, the country’s prime minister of two and a half months, had quit his post, along with his cabinet.

Over the course of the previous five days, a group known as the Houthis, who in September 2014 seized control of the capital, had abducted Al-Hadi’s chief of staff before laying siege to the presidential palace in Sanaa and overrunning the president’s private residence.

Little choice

Hadi, under effective house arrest, signed a deal with his captors promising them changes to a new draft constitution and greater political power. Within hours of the deal being signed, the Houthis demanded a series of political posts including, according to local media, the vice-presidency.

If Al-Hadi had agreed, many in Yemen believe he would have left himself in a position where he would have handed the Houthis the ability to rule by writ while blaming the president for the fallout of their actions. He had little choice but to quit.

Hadi’s resignation – which is yet to be accepted by Yemen’s House of Representatives, who could demand that he retain the post for 90 more days – catalysed the growth of a power vacuum that has threatened to tip the country into chaos since the Houthis first arrived in Sanaa.

Before the 2011 uprising, the Houthis were a deeply isolated group who had spent much of the previous decade evolving from a religious revivalist movement for the Zaydi Shiism largely unique to north Yemen. During this time, in their stronghold in the northern Sadah province, the group was being pummelled by the Yemeni army and Saudi Arabian air force.

Change of fortunes

Since the November 2011 ouster of Yemen’s president of 33 years, Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Houthis have undergone an astounding change in fortunes. The group now controls the country’s best-equipped and organised militia, which in turn has a stranglehold over Sanaa, and has achieved unprecedented political power with little in the way of accountability.

The September takeover of Sanaa, reportedly achieved through close cooperation with Saleh, came after a military campaign that saw the Houthis consolidate control over Sadah. The group then beat back rival conservative Sunni tribal and Islamist militias who cooperated closely with military units loyal to a leading military commander with similarly conservative Sunni leanings. Throughout, the group has espoused the rhetoric of a revolutionary movement intent on bringing stability to Yemen.

Their latest manoeuvre gives the impression that the Houthis’ precipitous rise to power has led the group to overreach. What is so worrying is the unintended consequence of their over-exuberance. Yemen is now without any formal leadership, while the economy collapses and security rapidly deteriorates. With little experience in government, it is unlikely the Houthis will be able to address Yemen’s many problems if they are left holding the reins.

Political showdown

But if Al-Hadi does step aside, it will not necessarily mean more power for the Houthis. In fact, it may precipitate what many in Sanaa have long suspected: a showdown between the Houthis and Saleh, their erstwhile patron.

Since Al-Hadi announced his departure, members of the Houthi politburo have been increasingly at odds with Saleh loyalists in the capital. Ali al-Emad, a leading Houthi political figure, has said his group plans on forming a military council to run the country. Meanwhile, members of Saleh’s General People’s Congress (GPC), which controls Yemen’s parliament, have pushed for the speaker of the house, Yahya al-Raei, to be made interim leader on the basis of the country’s constitution. The constitution is due to be replaced by a new version, currently in the draft phase.

Early elections

Hadi’s ouster would also likely lead to early presidential elections, with Saleh potentially fielding his son, Ahmed Ali Saleh, who for much of the latter part of his father’s regime had been seen as his heir apparent. The Houthis, with their rhetoric of ending the endemic corruption with which the Saleh era was deeply associated, could hardly come out in public support of Ahmed Ali.

Discussions of elections, presidential or otherwise, are premature, however. For the time being, Yemen faces a genuine existential crisis. There is no government, the economy is on the verge of collapse, the country’s southern secession movement is finally organising itself, and the local Al-Qaeda franchise is increasingly active; in mid-January, it claimed responsibility for the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris.

Yet it is difficult to see what kind of solution can be brokered to bring Yemen back from the edge, especially given the Houthis’ current overconfidence in their abilities. After a tough 2014, the country is in for an even harder 2015.