The ongoing tariff hikes and trade wars mean that the outlook for the global economy remains highly uncertain and volatile, according to the latest executive briefing on Tariffs and Trade Wars by GlobalData’s Strategic Intelligence.

The report warns that the prospective benefits of tariffs will come only slowly, and during this time the risks of a US and global recession are growing as investors reassess the economic impact of its tariff policies.

Despite the 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs, the near- and long-term outlooks are dogged by tariff uncertainty, complicating investment and management decisions.

The GlobalData Strategic Intelligence report adds that the greatest risk is that ongoing market volatility triggers reflexivity, sending corporate and consumer confidence plummeting, with indications that this is already happening. A silver lining is the potential strengthening of regional and inter-regional trade ties outside the US.

An earlier report by GlobalData's TS Lombard said tariffs are expected to settle at 8% by the end of the year, but the journey to that point is proving to be more chaotic than previously anticipated. The uncertainty has prompted TS Lombard to downgrade its global growth outlook, citing a disorganised implementation process that has left businesses and consumers in a state of uncertainty.