MEED’s remarkable Libya Focus Day in Dubai on 16 May brought together four representatives of the National Transitional Council (NTC), a heterodox group of Libyan business people, and dozens of uncertain foreigners wondering whether reconstruction in a country wrecked by four decades of dictatorial rule will ever come.

Libya’s ambassador to the UAE, Aref Nayed, [who] warned foreign companies to steer clear of business people with links to the previous regime

The Libyan business opportunity nevertheless has rarely looked more compelling. Oil production is expected to return next month to levels last seen before the start of the uprising that ended Muammar Gaddafi’s regime. Libya can expect to earn at least $45bn from oil exports this year and its economy should return to its 2010 position. Gaddafi’s austere rejection of credit means the new regime’s got obligations, but practically no debts.

The loss of life and property during the uprising was severe and many suffered permanent injuries. But the damage done to the infrastructure was essentially superficial. As Libyans living in Libya never tire of saying, Libya in 2012 isn’t like Iraq in 2003.

Internal divisions will take longer to repair. Practically no Libyan with professional, management or business skills can escape the charge that they at least silently accepted the previous regime’s excesses. But a divide has nevertheless emerged between those that kept their heads down until Gaddafi was dead and the minority that rebelled before.

It expressed itself during the Libyan Focus Day and was voiced by Libya’s ambassador to the UAE, Aref Nayed, who warned foreign companies to steer clear of business people with links to the previous regime that were hawking themselves as middle-men now. Nayed was talking about members of the audience he was addressing.

And yet, there was little rancour in the room. Everyone lost materially, morally or spiritually under Gaddafi. All Libyans, including his closest family members, were victims.

Suleiman Al-Fortia, NTC housing and utilities committee head, said a government capital budget of about $30bn had been approved for 2012 and that more large-scale investment was planned in the years to come. This was a huge opportunity for the domestic private sector and foreign companies ready to deal with Libya in a new and better way.

But the legacy of the past is inescapable for the hundreds of western firms that were encouraged by their governments to participate in the Libyan economy in the years following Gaddafi’s renunciation of weapons of mass destruction in 2003.

Aecom’s programme director for housing and infrastructure board projects, Christopher Toomey, said his company signed up for Libya’s housing projects in 2008 and continued working on them until the US government imposed sanctions on the regime in February 2011. With sanctions lifted following the end of the uprising on 23 October 2011, Aecom has been seeking to revive its contract. It says it’s still valid and relevant. Toomey said that revisions could lift its ultimate long-term value to $100bn.

The issue for Aecom and companies in a similar position is to secure the new regime’s blessing for Gaddafi-era contracts. Al-Fortia said that more than 10,000 companies are now being reviewed by a special body empowered by the NTC to terminate those deemed to have been secured through corruption or other unfair practices.

Clyde & Co’s Adrian Creed said that it would be impossible to carry out a review of so many contracts credibly and quickly. One way round the problem is to approve contracts that are already at least 70 per cent complete. Another is for contracts with Libyan businesses, most of them worth $1m or less, to be automatically cleared.

The impact of the review is obvious to recent visitors to Libya who say that idle cranes and incomplete projects are the defining characteristic of many Libyan towns and cities.

The good news is that doing business and setting up a branch or company in Libya is possible and comparatively straightforward. Commercial laws dating as far back to the Libyan monarchy, which lasted from 1951 until 1969, are viable and enforceable, lawyers say.

The most radical views were expressed by Husni Bey, the charismatic chairman of the Husni Bey Group. Bey dismissed the National Transitional Council as redundant in light of elections to a public national conference due in June; repeated his call for the 10,000 contracts to be reactivated immediately or scrapped and called for the role of the Libyan state to be radically reduced.

NTC deputy chairman Mustafa el-Huni, a pragmatist who addressed MEED’s previous Libya conference in Dubai in 2010, was emollient. “Moderation is the main principle we shall follow,” he said. “There are some contracts and agreements that need to be reviewed, but if this will be done within the spirit of mutual co-operation. We have no intention to nationalise or do anything radical, even if they are unfair contracts.”

Not every Libyan in the room agreed. But at least they were prepared to listen. By the standards of other states divided by the dramas of the Arab uprising, that was a Libyan miracle in its own right.