While the kingdoms projects market remains the largest in the region, government revenues will grow at a restrained rate
There are an estimated $2.655 trillion-worth of projects planned or underway in the GCC. Saudi Arabia is the biggest projects market in the region, accounting for 39 per cent of the total, followed by the UAE. Within Saudi Arabia, the three biggest sectors by value are construction, transport and power.
| Value of GCC projects planned or underway | |
|---|---|
| Source: MEED Projects | |
| Country | Value ($m) |
| Bahrain | 72,835 |
| UAE | 846,381 |
| Qatar | 279,121 |
| Kuwait | 246,368 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1,040,721 |
| Oman | 169,449 |
| Biggest projects by contract award value ($m) in Saudi Arabia ($m) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Source: MEED Projects | |||
| Project | Client | Industry | Value ($m) |
| Riyadh Light Rail Transit (Riyadh Metro): Lines 1 & 2 | Arriyadh Development Authority (ADA) | Transport | 9,289 |
| Haramain High-Speed Rail Network (HHR): Phase 2 | Saudi Railways Organisation | Transport | 8,396 |
| Riyadh Light Rail Transit (Riyadh Metro): Lines 4, 5 & 6 | ADA | Transport | 7,820 |
| Riyadh Light Rail Transit (Riyadh Metro): Line 3 | ADA | Transport | 5,942 |
| King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah: Phase 1: New Terminal: Package 1 | GACA | Transport | 4,034 |
| Military Medical City in Riyadh: Phase 1 | Ministry of Defence | Construction | 3,800 |
| Housing Development: Phase 2 | Saudi National Guard | Construction | 3,600 |
| Abraj Kudai in Mecca | Ministry of Finance | Construction | 3,500 |
| Rabigh Power Plant Extension - Phase 6 | Saudi Electricity Company | Power | 3,400 |
| King Abdullah Project: Security Forces Medical Complex: Jeddah | Ministry of Interior | Construction | 3,350 |
| Selected planned projects in Saudi Arabia ($m) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source: MEED Projects | |||||
| Project | Client | Industry | Value ($m) | Stage | Expected award year |
| Nuclear Power Reactor | King Abdullah City for Atomic & Renewable Energy | Power | 63,000 | Study | 2033 |
| Yanbu Oil-To-Chemical Complex | Saudi Basic Industries Corporation | Chemical | 30,000 | Feed | 2017 |
| Sustainable City | King Abdullah City for Atomic & Renewable Energy | Construction | 27,000 | Study | 2017 |
| Yanbu Integrated Refinery & Petrochemicals Complex | Saudi Aramco | Chemical | 20,000 | Study | 2017 |
| Heart of Jeddah Development | Jeddah Development & Urban Regeneration | Construction | 19,767 | Main Contract PQ | 2016 |
| Al Ruwais Regeneration in Jeddah | Jeddah Development & Urban Regeneration | Construction | 13,800 | Study | 2016 |
| Khozam Development in Jeddah | Khozam Development Co | Construction | 12,331 | Design | 2016 |
| GCC Water Grid | Gulf Cooperation Council | Water | 10,500 | Study | 2017 |
| King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah: Phase 2 | Saudi Arabia General Authority for Civil Aviation | Transport | 10,000 | Study | 2019 |
| King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah: Phase 3 | Saudi Arabia General Authority for Civil Aviation | Transport | 10,000 | Study | 2029 |
| Saudi hydrocarbons production | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-2012* | 2013 | 2014 | 2015e | 2016f | |
| Saudi Arabia crude oil productionn (million barrels a day) | 8.9 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| Saudi Arabia natural gas production (million barrels a day equivalent) | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Source: IMF; *=average | |||||
The kingdoms external breakeven oil price is forecast to remain broadly flat in 2016, at $64.7 a barrel, compared with an estimated level of $63.8 a barrel in 2015. The external breakeven oil price is the oil price at which the current account balance is zero.
Gross official reserves will fall from their 2014 peak. This highlights the number of months worth of tradable reserves Saudi Arabia holds
The IMF estimates that government revenues will fall almost 35 per cent in 2015, to SR684bn. There will be a further fall in 2016, to SR659bn, with recovery beginning in 2017.
Oil GDP growth will fall substantially, from an estimated 4.2 per cent in 2015 to 1.2 per cent in 2016, while non-oil GDP growth will be unchanged at 3 per cent.
Total government gross debt will rise from 6.7 per cent of GDP in 2015 to 17.3 per cent of GDP in 2017, according to IMF forecasts
Total gross external debt will remain at 15 per cent in 2016 according to IMF forecasts
| Saudi economic indicators | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Nominal GDP ($bn) | 744.3 | 746.2 | 632.1* | 643.2 | 694.5 | 749.2 | 799.8 | 848.6 |
| GDP per capita ($) | 24,816 | 24,252 | 20,139 | 20,093 | 21,269 | 22,494 | 23,541 | 24,488 |
| Real GDP growth (annual change, %) | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.4* | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Government revenue (% of GDP) | 41.4 | 37.3 | 28.9* | 27.3 | 27.7 | 27.7 | 26.9 | 25.9 |
| Government total expenditure (% of GDP | 35.6 | 40.8 | 50.4* | 46.7 | 45.2 | 43.9 | 41.6 | 39.9 |
| General government gross debt (% of GDP) | 2.2 | 1.6 | 6.7* | 17.3 | 25.8 | 32.8 | 38.8 | 44.3 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | 18.2 | 10.3 | -3.5* | -4.7 | -1.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -0.3 |
| Inflation (%) | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1* | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Population (millions) | 30.0 | 30.8 | 31.4* | 32.0 | 32.7 | 33.3 | 34.0 | 34.7 |
| Unemployment rate (millions) | 5.6 | 5.5 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015; * = Estimates start from | ||||||||
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