Economic optimism growing in Egypt

24 February 2015

Expectations are high ahead of Economic Development Conference in March

  • Business confidence has grown over the past year
  • New legislation is helping investment confidence
  • International companies are being attracted back into the country

Sentiment surrounding Egypt’s economy has seen a dramatic turnaround over the past six months ahead of the country’s ambitious Economic Development Conference, which is due to start on 13 March.

Since President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi’s election in May 2014, an uncompromising approach to demonstrations and unrest has helped to increase stability, and business expectations have been lifted by a frenzy of legislative reform, bold megaproject plans and dozens of deals made with oil and gas companies.

Speaking at a conference in Cairo on 17 February, Egypt’s Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker said that more than 50 concession agreements were made over 2014, including new agreements and deals to modify existing contracts.

In January, a further 15 exploratory concession agreements were signed and another two were amended.

Egypt’s lawmakers have overhauled, and are in the process of enacting, wide-reaching legislation that the government hopes will break down barriers to investment. The country’s competition and mortgage laws have been amended, and new laws for mining and microfinance, the country’s first, have been issued.

It has also outlined one of the region’s most anticipated alternative energy frameworks, issuing a new renewable energy law along with an attractive feed-in tariff, in an effort to promote private investment in solar and wind electricity generation. Fuel subsidies have been slashed, helping to cut total spending on subsidies by 30 per cent in the first half of the 2014-15 fiscal year.

The sweeping overhaul of legislation, with emphasis on removing barriers to investment, has impressed both domestic and international businesses.

More than 2,000 delegates are expected to attend the economic conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, where more than 30 projects are expected to be presented, with a total value of more than $30bn.

The wave of enthusiasm for Egypt’s economy is a stark contrast to business sentiment one year ago.

On 25 January 2014, on the anniversary of the revolt against the former president, Hosni Mubarak, 49 people died in clashes with security forces, increasing fears that post-revolutionary chaos would continue to disrupt business activities.

At the same time, the country was enduring its worst energy crisis in decades, with international companies refusing to invest due to the large debts owed to them by the Egyptian government.

Since then, a constant heavy security presence on the streets and harsh punishments for those connected to unrest has reduced disruption from protests, and thanks to hours of governmental deal-making, energy companies, including the UK’s BP and BG Group and the UAE’s Dana Gas, are now on side.

A deal between BP and Egypt Natural Gas Holding Company (Egas) to restart the $10bn project to develop Egypt’s giant North Alexandria concession was given approval by the cabinet in mid-December and the State Council, a judicial body that drafts legislation, gave approval for the deal in the last week of January. Presidential approval is expected in coming weeks.

“This is the kind of revolution we need, not one where people take to the streets,” said one oil and gas executive speaking on the sidelines of an economic conference in Cairo.

While the business community celebrates the government’s drive to increase productivity, analysts fear that unrest could still disrupt plans to increase investment, and that Al-Sisi’s mass trials and restrictions on freedom of speech could prompt an eventual backlash from some sections of Egyptian society.

Despite disruption from protests decreasing, the risk of terror attacks in both central Cairo and the Sinai Peninsular has increased since 2012, according to risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.

Overall, Egypt’s business community backs the drive for increased investment and productivity, but the rapid rate of change has caused problems, with some companies complaining there are grey areas in the legislation that need clarification.

“There are gaps, and issues that aren’t addressed by the new legislation,” said one executive, whose company is working on a new power station project. “There are going to be teething problems, but I believe the government is moving in the right direction.”

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