The latest estimates of wind energy capacity in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region by the Belgium-based Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) say there is about 1,079MW of installed capacity currently contributing to regional power demand. By 2015, the GWEC expects this to almost double to around 2,000MW.

This rate of growth is positive for the industry, but it could have been much higher if progress had matched the rate wind energy proponents were predicting back in 2009.

“A few years ago, we thought there might be real potential to get things going in Yemen, but they have other issues at the moment. Unfortunately, the same has to be said of Egypt this year,” says Steve Sawyer, secretary general of the GWEC.

“Egypt has been otherwise occupied for the past 12 months, even though it finally has a new scheme for introducing independent power producers into the sector that shows great promise.”

Slow progress with wind energy schemes

To date, the only countries with major wind farms are Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Iran. Egypt is currently the largest producer with 550MW of installed wind power capacity.

Its New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) aims to install a further 6,650MW of wind power during the next eight years, mainly along the Gulf of Suez. It has plans to tender 2,500MW of private wind projects through 10 farms, but despite releasing the first tender in 2009, it has yet to make any awards.

A few years ago, we thought there might be potential to get things going in Yemen, but they have other issues

Steve Sawyer, GWEC

Originally, the schemes were to be tendered in pairs between 2010 and 2016, with a final tranche of three sites awarded in 2017, all in time for the 2020 target. But these private schemes look set to remain delayed until a new government is firmly in place.

Despite the political uncertainty, the NREA tells MEED that it remains committed to wind energy and state-run projects are still progressing. “We still hope to reach 7,200MW by 2020 and our schedule is fine,” says an official from the wind energy department. “We are currently finalising our 200MW project in the Al-Zayt area.”

Spanish turbine manufacturer Gamesa was announced as the supplier to the 200MW wind farm in December 2011. It will be providing 100 of its G80 2MW turbines to the site during 2013. According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, the $550m scheme will be operational in the first quarter of 2014.

Within the next five years, Morocco and perhaps Egypt are likely to have delivered major private projects

As part of the contract, Gamesa will perform turbine assembly, erection and commissioning services, followed by operation and maintenance services for five years. Financing is being provided by Germany’s KFW Development Bank, the European Investment Bank and the EU through its neighbourhood investment scheme.

The contract will add to the 406MW that Gamesa has already installed in the country at the existing Zafarana site and makes the company the leading turbine supplier in Egypt.

The 200MW project is set to be followed by a raft of other schemes. The majority will be managed by the NREA. Italy’s Italcementi subsidiary Italgen is planning to develop a 120MW private wind farm under an agreement negotiated with the Ministry of Energy & Electricity back in 2007.

Its capacity will be increased to 400MW in later phases and the electricity will be used to power a local cement plant. Italcementi became the principal shareholder of Egypt’s Suez Cement in 2005.

The NREA’s schemes include a 220MW farm funded by Japan’s International Cooperation Agency, 120MW and 180MW projects supported by Spain, and a 200MW scheme in conjunction with Abu Dhabi’s Masdar. “We are currently choosing a consultant for the Japanese project,” says the NREA official. “The other projects are in study phase.”

Wind profile in the Gulf

Most of the planned wind farms will be located along the Gulf of Suez in the Gebel el-Zayt area, where, according to the Egypt Wind Energy Association, 700 square kilometres has been set aside for new wind projects.

The area is considered to have some of the best wind resources not only in Egypt but in the world, with speeds of 11 metres a second and a potential capacity factor of 70 per cent. This equates to more than 6,000 hours of wind a year.

GWEC’s Sawyer says the wind profile that makes that part of Egypt so favourable is also shared by Saudi Arabia.

“The same wind resources that make the Red Sea area such a large potential resource on the Egyptian side are also on the Saudi side. [The kingdom] has begun to show some interest in that,” he says. 

Wind energy falls under the remit of the King Abdullah City for Atomic & Renewable Energy (Kacare), which was launched following a royal decree in April 2010.

“The other wind resources in this part of the world are around the corner in Oman and Yemen. In the UAE, Masdar has been a heavy investor in the sector, but unfortunately in the Emirates there is not much wind,” says Sawyer.

Abu Dhabi is persevering and adding a 28.8MW domestic wind farm on Sir Bani Yas Island to its portfolio of wind investments overseas. The turbines are being supplied by Denmark’s Vestas.

“They are really looking at it as a test to see if they can make it economically viable in the rest of the UAE in the relatively low wind regime,” says Sawyer.

One country that does not have to worry about wind resources is Morocco. “Morocco has enough potential to power all of North Africa, all of Europe and most of sub-Saharan Africa, and still have some left over,” says Sawyer. This is mainly thanks to its 3,500km of coastline, which boasts both high wind speeds and consistent availability.

At the end of 2010, Morocco had an installed capacity of 286MW. The aim is to increase this to 2,000MW by 2020. The projects will be a mix of public and private initiatives and the country has followed Egypt by launching a major private power programme. Given Egypt’s current political instability, Morocco could overtake its neighbour in installed wind capacity.

Morocco wind energy progress

In early January, Morocco’s Office National de l’Electricite (ONE) launched a prequalification process for five new wind farms with a combined capacity of 850MW, along with the potential extension of the existing El-Koudia el-Beida site to 200MW, from its current 53.9MW.

The schemes will be constructed under a build, own, operate, transfer arrangement, with the successful developer consortium working in partnership with ONE, Societe d’Investissements Energetique and the Hassan II Fund. Tender documents are scheduled to be released in the second quarter of 2012, with start-up planned to begin in mid-2014.

A further 150MW farm at Taza is also undergoing procurement; technical bids were received in January and commercial bids are due in February. Iran and Jordan share Morocco’s commitment to wind energy, but have made less progress. Iran currently has 92MW of capacity installed at two major farms at Binalood and Manjil. The Iran Renewable Energy Organisation (Suna) has set a target of 6,500MW of wind capacity but achieving this will be challenging without international cooperation.

Jordan’s progress has also been slow. Its first project – a 30MW wind farm at Al-Khamsah – was intended to be a pilot for a further 400MW of wind farms.

However, the scheme has not gone smoothly, casting doubt on future farms. After protracted negotiations over the tariff price with developer Terna Energy from Greece, the project is now understood to be on hold due to environmental issues. A committee has been established to assess the future of the project and a decision is expected soon.

Sawyer says that there are some basic measures that wind project sponsors can take to improve their chances of success.

“They should be talking to a wide range of people who have been successfully involved in developing the industry and see how that translates into their context,” he says.

Although the challenges are mostly market-specific, he says that clear political support is vital in any location. Another important requirement is that of financial support as power generation is increasingly being owned by the private sector as states continue their energy sector reforms.

There are a range of mechanisms available to governments to ensure development is attractive to the private sector, including feed-in tariffs, guaranteed purchase prices and tradable certificates as used in Europe.

Power grid connection

The ease with which wind schemes can be connected to the power grid also determines how fast the sector can develop.

Wind specialists tell MEED that some desert areas of the region have ideal wind speeds and capacity factors for projects, but a lack of existing network would make the schemes economically unviable. Alongside this, existing systems in the region have been created to absorb and distribute huge point sources of power.

“If you have traditional power stations that makes a lot of sense, but if you are dealing with more modern systems with wind farms and a wide variety of distributed generation then your grid looks very different. In early stages it doesn’t become an issue, but once you move beyond 10 per cent it does,” says Sawyer.

Despite the challenges, the region is demonstrating a willingness to implement wind energy as part of its future power mix. More work remains to be done to ensure success, including recording more long-term wind data, legislative changes and financial incentives to encourage and accelerate private participation, but governments are already working through these issues.

Within the next five years, Morocco and perhaps Egypt are likely to have delivered major private projects and their experiences will provide lessons for other states keen to harness their wind power resources.