While it remains unconfirmed whether the Metrojet flight on 31 October crashed because of a bomb on board, Egypt’s is set to face a difficult period as security concerns return to a country so dependent on tourism.

The UK and US have led the narrative saying that Isis-affiliated groups in Sinai planted a bomb on board the St. Petersburg bound flight. The Egyptian government on the other hand has said it is too early to confirm the cause of the crash, despite investigators saying they are ‘90 per cent sure’ a bomb brought down the Russian passenger jet.

Some analysts have gone as far to say that the damage has been done and Egypt’s tourism sector may have witnessed its ‘final blow’.

President Abdul Fatah al-Sisi has been fighting Islamist militants in Sinai since he took office in 2014, with hundreds of jihadist fighters, mostly in northern Sinai, killed over the last 12 months. The expectation is that Egypt’s armed forces will press ahead with more military operations even if the authorities do not confirm that a bomb was the cause of the crash.

Differences between Egypt and the UK are unlikely to be a major issue moving forward. Although the UK has been criticised by Cairo for not sharing intellengence information, Al-Sisi’s visit to London in early November was regarded as a success by both the Egyptians and the UK Prime Minister David Cameron, and just the latest demonstration of how Al-Sisi has positioned himself as a key ally to both the West and Russia in their fight against Islamic extremism in the region. The geopolitical ramifications of the Metrojet incident will be of more concern to Russian premier Vladamir Putin who recently began airstrikes targeting Isis positions in Syria.

The real issue for Egypt will be mitigating the loss of much needed foreign currency flow that tourism provides. Egypt’s central bank foreign reserves are shrinking despite a slight increase this month. Coupled with contracting revenues from the Suez Canal, Egypt finds itself in a position where the most effective reaction to the events in Sharm el-Sheikh may be an economic one rather than increased military activity in Sinai.