The end of nuclear-related sanctions against Iran edged closer following the publication on 2 December of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) eagerly-awaited assessment of Tehran’s compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and associated nuclear roadmap.

The report says the Islamic Republic had complied with the roadmap’s schedule and there are “no credible indications” it had been working on developing a nuclear weapon after 2009.

Analysts say the 16-page assessment, which is due to be submitted to the IAEA’s board of governors on 15 December, indicates Iran has demonstrated it has no capacity to develop a nuclear bomb. It should clear the way for the board to deem the country to be in compliance with the JCPOA, an action that will automatically trigger the lifting of US, UN and EU sanctions, possibly before the end of the year.

“All the activities contained in the roadmap were implemented in accordance with the agreed schedule,” the assessment says. “Iran provided explanations in writing and related documents on past and present outstanding issues, the agency submitted questions on ambiguities relating to Iran’s explanations and technical-expert meetings were held. The agency conducted safeguards activities at particular locations of interest to the agency, including at the Parchin site, and a wrap-up meeting was held.”

The assessment says a range of activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device were conducted in Iran prior to the end of 2003 as a coordinated effort, and some activities took place after 2003.

“The agency also assesses that these activities did not advance beyond feasibility and scientific studies, and the acquisition of certain relevant technical competences and capabilities,” the assessment says. “The agency has no credible indications of activities in Iran relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device after 2009. The agency has found no credible indications of the diversion of nuclear material in connection with the possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme.”

Both the White House and the US State department said the assessment had cleared the way for the end of sanctions. New York’s Wall Street Journal reported unidentified US officials as saying Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA over the past five months is likely to be seen as sufficient to allow the deal to move ahead.

“Iran has provided what [the IAEA] says was sufficient,” said a senior US official working on the implementation of the Iran deal, quoted by the Wall Street Journal.

US State Department spokesman Mark Toner said the assessment showed the IAEA had confirmed Washington’s allegation that Iran had once been working on a nuclear bomb, but he added that Iran had cooperated adequately with IAEA investigators.

“The IAEA report is consistent with what the US has long assessed with high confidence,” Toner told reporters in Washington on 2 December. “We made this public first in our 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, and that is that Iran had a nuclear weapons programme that was halted in 2003.”

Toner said the US was ready to move ahead now that the IAEA had been able to study the programme and had found no evidence it had continued beyond 2009.

“The IAEA has confirmed that Iran met its commitments to provide responses to IAEA requests under the roadmap for clarification of past and present issues,” he said.

Washington and the other members of the P5+1 group of world powers — Britain, China, France and Russia, plus Germany — will submit a motion to the IAEA board on 15 December to close the issue of what has been called the “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s programme.

“And then, after that, we can focus on implementing the JCPOA,” Toner was reported as saying.