Asian Phoenix portrays a world where the centre of economic and political gravity shifts more rapidly to the Asia Pacific region. By 2030, Asia represents 42 per cent of world energy consumption and 54 per cent of world GDP – putting it well on the way to recapturing the share of the world economy it had two centuries ago.
Break Point explores a future where oil supply difficulties limit production growth, leading to sustained high prices and significant market response towards alternative fuels and technologies. The world’s energy system evolves dramatically from the status quo of 2005. Oil loses its monopoly grip on the transportation sector as new sources of liquid fuel become competitive with products derived from conventional oil.
Global Fissures describes a future in which the political limits of global economic integration are reached, resulting in a social and political backlash against free trade and market liberalisation. The scenario looks at how such a change could challenge conventional assumptions about future patterns of energy demand, investment and supply.
* See the attached Word document for the graph charting these three Cambridge Energy Research Associates scenarios.