The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is set to become the world’s largest exporting region of primary aluminum by 2020, according to Dubai Aluminium Company (Dubal).

The net export balance of major producers such as China, the US and the EU is expected to decrease over the next decade, leaving opportunities for producers in the Middle East and Russia to supply deficit markets.

Speaking at the CRU World Aluminium conference in Abu Dhabi on 1 May, Dubal adviser Malcolm McHale said global demand for primary aluminium is expected to increase to more than 70 million tonnes a year (t/y) by 2020, up from about 50 million t/y in 2011.

“Where will the smelter capacity come from … the Middle East and Russia will have to provide surplus,” says McHale, who was speaking in place of the Dubal chief executive officer Abdulla Kalban.

Dubal expects the GCC to be a net primary aluminium exporter of more than 4 million t/y by 2020 compared to about 2 million t/y in 2012.

The GCC, which currently houses six aluminium smelters, is expected to increase capacity to 6.1 million t/y in 2016 from 3.625 million t/y in 2010.

McHale said that that the stability of energy supply in the region has been a key driver towards the development of its fast-growing aluminium sector.

“If you haven’t got long-term energy contracts to align with the smelter, you are in a very insecure position when you need to develop,” he said.