
World Bank estimates the gulf oil exporters have lost $157bn last year on account of lower oil prices
The governments of oil producing gulf nations recorded losses of $157bn in oil revenues in 2015 and are expected to lose another $100bn this year, according to the World Bank.
Low oil prices are havin a major impact on the economies in the Middle East and North African (Mena) region, with the fiscal balance of oil exporters having swung from a surplus of $128bn in 2013 to a deficit of $264bn in 2016. International reserves in Saudi Arabia alone have depleted by $178bn, followed by Algeria which has recorded a fall in reserves of $28bn, the Washington-based World Bank said in its latest MENA 2016 quarterly economic brief.
After years of surplus, Qatar, the worlds largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, is estimated to run a budget deficit of $8bn, equivalent to 5 per cent of its gross domestic product in 2016. The deficit is the smallest among the six-member GCC economic bloc, however, it could grow given that budget planners in Doha have calculated oil prices at $48 per barrel for the year.
The World Bank report predicts that the world oil market will work through its current oversupply and rebalance in early 2020 at market-clearing prices that will be in the range of $53 to $60 per barrel.
For Saudi Arabia, Opecs biggest oil exporter which relies on oil proceeds for 80 per cent of its revenues, the current low oil price scenario means that the fiscal deficits are expected to surpass an estimated $118bn in 2016 about 6 per cent of the its GDP and $97bn next year.
The report said that foreign reserves of the kingdom are down by 20 per cent to $587bn as of March this year and at this rate, they will be wiped out in four years.
Saudi Arabia has borrowed significantly, including $26bn last year and a $10bn loan finalised in April this year. The government is planning to raise another $15bn through its debut bond, which will put the ratio of debt to GDP to 26 per cent in 2017. The cost of borrowing for the country has also risen, following credit rating cuts rating agencies.
The international Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates show that an oil price of $105.60 is needed to balance Saudi Arabias budget, which is more than twice the current levels. The executive board of IMF has also concluded the Article IV Consultation 1 with the country and the Washington-based fund estimates that the countrys Real GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.2 per cent in 2016, but it may recover to 2 percent in 2017 as the pace of fiscal consolidation eases. The growth is expected to settle around 2.25 -2.5 per cent over the medium-term, IMF said in a statement.
Based on current policies, IMF however, estimates that the fiscal deficit to narrow to 13 per cent of GDP in 2016.
For the entire Mena region including Afghanistan and Pakistan, IMF in April had estimated a $390bn loss in oil export revenues last year. The losses on oil exports in 2015 accounted for 17.5 per cent of the aggregate GDP of the broader region
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