Increasing concerns about GCC terror threat

10 December 2014

Companies seek extra security after Saudi Arabia shooting and Abu Dhabi murder

Foreign companies operating in the Saudi Arabia and other GCC nations are becoming increasingly concerned about the risk of terror attacks, in the wake of the shooting of a Danish man in Riyadh and the stabbing of an American teacher in Abu Dhabi.

Risk consultancy companies have reported seeing a higher number of enquiries in the wake of the incidents.

“We are seeing more concern from our clients,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal analyst and deputy head of risk consultancy MENAVerisk Maplecroft.

“We’ve especially seen an increase in demand for risk briefings on Saudi Arabia recently. We’ve also seen from open source material that companies are taking more precautions in considering their security arrangements.”

In November, there have been a number of attacks on Westerners in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, including the shooting a Danish citizen in Riyadh, which has been claimed by Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (Isis), and another attack on a Canadian.

In early December, an American teacher was murdered in a mall in Abu Dhabi. There was also an attempted bombing of an American doctor by the same attacker.

The attacks come after the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi urged sympathisers to carry out attacks in Saudi Arabia in an audio message released on 13 November.

In the message he urged sympathisers to specifically attack Shia Muslims, government officials and Westerners in Saudi Arabia.

“Oh soldiers of the Islamic State… erupt volcanoes of jihad everywhere. Light the earth with fire against all dictators,” he added.

There have also been several recent posts on jihadist websites encouraging attacks against British and other Western interests, including teachers and schools in the Middle East.

Schools in the UAE increased security following a security warning by the US State Department in October.

“We flagged the heightened risk of a terror attack in Saudi Arabia in early 2014, mainly due to the sheer number of Saudi nationals who have travelled to Syria and Iraq,” says Soltvedt.

Saudi Arabia’s government has estimated that between 1,200 and 2,500 foreign fighters in Syria are from Saudi Arabia.

“On top of returning fighters, you also have the lone wolf risk, people sympathizing with Islamic state in Saudi Arabia,” says Soltvedt.

“Saudi Arabia is taking very strong measures to combat the heightened risk, but the sheer volume of people that have gone abroad to fight makes it difficult to mitigate. It’s difficult to track that many people.”

Out of all the Gulf states, the UAE has taken the biggest role in the military operations against Isis, first joining the US-led airstrikes in September.

“For the UAE it is slightly different,” says Soltvedt. “The UAE has estimated that around 14 nationals have joined Islamic state, making the country less exposed to returning fighters, but, of course, the UAE is playing a very prominent role in operations against Islamic State. They’ve flown more military sorties than any other Gulf state. That makes them a target.”

UK-based risk consultancy AKE has also seen an increased number of enquiries from clients concerned about GCC secuity, but the company has not changed its threat rating for the country in light of the recent attacks.

“We don’t see the threat level as elevated in light of the recent attacks,” says John Drake, a Middle East specialist at AKE.

“There has been a low level threat of lone-wolf attacks in the GCC and other regions for a long time now. The attack that we recently saw in Abu Dhabi could have just as easily taken place in London or Strasburg.”

Drake says there have been frequent jihadist videos and recorded messages calling for terror attacks in the Saudi Arabia over recent years and whether the latest audio message from Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in November is more effective at prompting attacks within the GCC remains uncertain.

“Isis has more credibility because it controls more territory than previous groups,” says Drake. “It is also more internet savvy and better at manipulating the media than other terror organisations have been. Whether this will translate into an increased number of lone-wolf style terror attacks in Gulf states remains to be seen.”

If the GCC does see an increase in terror attacks, the economic consequences could be significant.

After the June 2004 attack on two industry installations and a residential compound in Al-Khobar, a town on Saudi Arabia’s east coast, oil prices jumped to record highs, with futures rising 6.1 per cent to $42.32 a barrel in New York.

The attack killed 22 foreign workers and sparked an exodus of expats from the country.

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