As MEED magazine went to press on 12 June, the state of Iraq was in the process of breaking up – a development that has the potential to destabilise the entire region. 

The rapid progress of Sunni jihadists from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (Isis) in overrunning Ninevah province in the northwest of the country, taking Mosul, Iraq’s second biggest city, in the process, has been stunning in its speed and unexpectedness.

Their subsequent drive southwards saw them take Tikrit, the former stronghold of dictator Saddam Hussein, on 11 June. With the city of Fallujah just 69 kilometres west of Baghdad already under their control, analysts say the Isis forces will strike the capital.

If successful, this would split Iraq east and west along sectarian lines, establishing a Sunni extremist stronghold in the west of the country, from which jihadists could build campaigns across Syria, Jordan and even south into the Gulf.

Meanwhile, well-organised Kurdish Peshmerga forces mobilised on 12 June to take the northern oil city of Kirkuk, a symbolic strike that, if maintained, will give Iraq’s Kurds control of the country’s northern oil fields and a significant boost to Kurdish independence ambitions.

In the face of these twin offensives, Baghdad appears unable to assert its authority. Iraqi army troops fled before the Isis assault in the west, while the federal forces’ resistance in Kirkuk had little strength. Tehran-backed Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has struggled to respond quickly, and his calls for the introduction of emergency laws fell on deaf ears in parliament.

It seems unlikely that Baghdad will be able to mobilise a strong domestic or international response quickly enough to prevent opposition forces from entrenching themselves on both sides. If civil war is to be prevented, a rapid and unified response is required not just by Baghdad but also by Washington. Any delay will make the task of re-establishing stability for Iraq and the region immeasurably more