It is always a good time to launch tall towers

07 February 2016

Market conditions inevitably change during the construction of long term projects

On 6 February Dubai announced that it had appointed Spanish architect Santiago Calatrava to design a new tower for the city near to the Creek.

Property prices in the emirate have fallen over the past year, and in a region preoccupied with low oil prices and geopolitical tensions, the timing of Dubai’s decision to press ahead with yet another iconic tower may at first appear to be misguided.

The question is: Is there a good time to launch a tall tower?

The difficulty with tower projects is they take a long time to develop, which means the economic and political backdrop when they are launched is likely to have completely changed by the time they are completed.

 tower vs oil prices 2

Tower launches vs oil prices

The Burj Khalifa is a prime example. It was launched in mid-2003 when nobody expected developers in Dubai to sell large volumes of property, oil prices, like today, were about $30 a-barrel, and the region was gripped with a period of geopolitical uncertainty as a US-led coalition was invading Iraq less than two years after the 11 September terrorist attacks.

During the seven years that it took to complete the tower the city of Dubai was transformed. There was a credit-fuelled property boom with hundreds of towers constructed in new developments such as the Downtown district, Dubai Marina, Business Bay, and Jumeirah Lake Towers. The bubble then burst spectacularly in 2008 as Dubai grappled with a debt crisis that still lingers on today.

Dubai’s leadership will be quietly hoping that it is always a good time to launch a tall tower, and this new, as yet unnamed, tower will have a similar impact on the emirate’s economy as the construction of the Burj Khalifa did. Only this time it will be wise to avoid relying too heavily on debt.

Pivotal first half for Dubai projects

Market aims to return to growth in 2016 with string of major awards

 The new Atlantis hotel planned in Dubai

The new Atlantis hotel planned in Dubai

The new Atlantis hotel planned in Dubai

There were plenty of announcements and a fair amount of tendering, but on balance 2015 was a disappointment for contractors looking for new work in Dubai.

According to data from MEED Projects, 2015 was the first year of negative growth for construction contract awards since the market bottomed in 2011. There were $21.3bn of contract awards, which was about 18 per cent less than the nearly $25.9bn of contracts awarded in 2014.

With a difficult year behind it, in 2016 the market will be hoping for a return to positive growth. Read More 

 

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