Libya: Lurching back into civil war

29 May 2014

Both sides in the conflict for power in Libya are ready to take each other on and there are signs the clashes will further destabilise the country

The rise of former general Khalifa Haftar and his war on militant Islam has given hope to hundreds of thousands of Libyans disillusioned with the country’s progress, while at the same time ushering in a new round of extreme violence likely to get worse before it gets better.

Haftar, who commands the loyalty of a large chunk of the country’s army and air force, started his campaign with an unauthorised operation to hunt down members of extremist groups in Benghazi on 16 May. When the dust settled, more than 70 people were reported dead. More killing followed in a raid on parliament days later. The frequency of armed clashes and assassinations has surged since the start of Haftar’s campaign and on 28 May, air force jets loyal to the retired general bombed the bases of the Islamist militia February 17 Brigade.

Thousands of desperate Libyans eager for change have taken to the streets to support Haftar. They hope this short-term increase in violence will bring stability in the long term by putting the country’s extremist groups out of action, but there are signs the clashes will in fact further destabilise the country.

Speaking on national television, the leader of militant Islamist group Ansar al-Sharia branded Haftar’s operation a “crusade against Islam” and said the group is ready to take part in a prolonged conflict, warning that “Muslims from across the world” would join their fight.

With both sides in the conflict seemingly bristling for action, countries with a vested interest in Libya are not betting on a quick resolution to the power struggle, with both the US and Tunisia moving troops closer to the country in case intervention is needed.

Haftar has proved skilful so far in navigating Libya’s treacherous political geography. The achievement of uniting so many senior figures from its tribes, armed forces and militias should not be underplayed. However, defeating Islamist groups in a short-term military campaign while avoiding infighting and maintaining public support may prove to be an impossible task.

 

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