Mena energy investment to top $900bn over next five years

25 March 2018
Saudi Arabia will make the biggest chunk of the $919bn investments Apicorp expects will be made

The Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (Apicorp) in its annual outlook report for the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) has forecast that energy investments in the region will surpass $900bn in the next five years.

The Saudi-based energy investments firm has stated it expects to see a number of critical energy projects pushed through over the next five years, despite the uncertain geopolitical backdrop.

Around $345bn has been committed to projects under execution, while an additional $574bn worth of development is planned, totalling $919bn in combined investments, Apicorp said in its report.

The overall economic outlook remains similar to Apicorp’s forecasts made this time last year, with growth of around 3.2 per cent predicted for both 2018 and 2019. Global investment in the industry is expected to pick up and parts of the Mena region are expected to see an improvement in energy investment.

Saudi Arabia is expected to lead the way in Mena energy investments. State oil giant Saudi Aramco already announced plans last year to raise its expenditure budget to $414bn from $334bn over the next decade.

Aramco’s chief executive Amin Nasser also said earlier this month that the global oil and gas industry needs to invest more than $20tn over the next 25 years to meet expected growth in demand and compensate for the natural depletion in developed oil assets

The uncertainty over the possible re-imposition of sanctions on Iran mean that Tehran may struggle to attract the foreign investment it needs to develop its industry.  Iraq is also facing challenges, despite the improving security situation.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE represent 38 per cent of planned investments, with $149bn and $72bn respectively, over the outlook period, as both countries look to boost their upstream oil and gas sectors.

For Egypt, the main focus is ramping up gas production and meeting rising power demand. Planned investments in the country are $72bn, with the power sector making up over 50 per cent of the total.

Elsewhere planned projects in Kuwait stand at $59bn over the same period, with over 50 per cent in the oil sector, as per the Dammam-headquartered firm. More specifically, Kuwait intends to increase oil output to 4 million barrels a day (b/d) within the next few years.

In Algeria planned projects stand at around $58bn with the Hassi Messaoud Peripheral Field Development accounting for a significant portion of investments in upstream oil. The country will seek to invest in upstream oil and gas to meet its target of increasing production by 20 per cent.

However, low fiscal buffers and competing pressures on revenue may impact Algeria’s efforts to execute its ambitious capacity expansion plans.

Other major investment in the oil and gas sector will be made in Iran, with an estimated $67bn in planned projects in the coming period, and Iraq, at $47bn.

Oil investments in Iraq account for $27bn with the Eni-led Zubair and the PetroChina-led Halfaya, two of the largest upstream development projects in the country.

However, the outlook for Iran and Iraq remains uncertain, with a significantly higher degree of political risk, according to Apicorp.

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