The Middle East and North Africa's construction project pipeline has demonstrated considerable resilience in the months since the military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran began in late February, although the regional performance has softened from its early-year highs and the full effects of the geopolitical shock continue to ripple through the project market.

GlobalData's Construction Projects Momentum Index (CPMI) for the Mena region recorded 0.86 in April 2026, placing the region third globally behind North-east Asia and South Asia. The Mena score represents a 12% decline from 0.98 in March, which itself was unchanged from February. The regional three-month moving average eased modestly to 0.96 in April from 0.97 in March, suggesting that while momentum has nudged lower, the pipeline has not experienced the kind of sustained deterioration that might have been expected given the severity of the geopolitical disruption.

The resilience partly reflects the composition of the regional project market. The Mena region's largest markets, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have both continued to record solid momentum in the months following the start of hostilities in February. The UAE led the region in April with a CPMI of 1.20, easing only slightly from 1.30 in March, while Saudi Arabia recorded 0.94.

Mixed performance

The impact of the conflict is most visible at the country level, where a sharp divergence has opened up between markets directly exposed to the fighting and those insulated from it. Israel recorded the lowest CPMI score in the region in April at -3.26, reflecting substantial delays to major projects. The East Mediterranean Gas Pipeline was among the most significant casualties, with its Final Investment Decision pushed well beyond its original timeline. Iran, another direct participant in the conflict, registered a markedly weaker score of 0.53 in April, a stark reversal from its position as one of the region's strongest performers in January, when it posted 1.31.

The conflict's first major imprint on the index appeared in March, when the CPMI data reflected the initial shock of the escalation. Execution-stage momentum in the region dipped from 1.06 in February to 0.89 in March, while pre-execution activity slipped from 1.02 to 0.95. Infrastructure, which had been a strong performer earlier in the year, fell sharply to 0.53 in March from 1.06 in February, with the institutional sector also pulling back from 1.27 to 0.78. These moves are consistent with the channels through which conflict typically disrupts construction activity — cost inflation driven by energy price volatility, supply chain disruption and elevated risk premiums that delay investment decisions.

Stability signs

By April, some of these pressures had begun to ease, at least at the index level. Execution momentum recovered to 1.01, reversing the March dip, and infrastructure returned as the top-performing sector with a CPMI of 1.13. Commercial and leisure activity also remained solid at 0.94, building on gains that have been sustained throughout the conflict period.

Pre-execution momentum, however, continued to soften, falling to 0.86 in April from 0.95 in March. This is significant because the pre-execution stage — which captures project planning, design development and procurement preparation — is where investor caution and risk reassessment typically show up first. A sustained decline in this segment would signal a thinning of the future project pipeline, even if near-term execution activity holds up.

Kuwait offers a specific illustration of how supply chain and procurement disruptions linked to the conflict can affect individual markets. In January, Kuwait had recorded a CPMI of 0.27, depressed by delays to tender packages on Kuwait Oil Company developments including the SGC1, SGC II, SGC III and JLO Export Facility projects. The country recovered strongly to 1.43 in February and 0.90 in March, before falling back to 0.55 in April, with delays reported on Dorra Field developments. The oscillation reflects the vulnerability of projects with complex procurement requirements to the kind of supply chain uncertainty the conflict has generated.

Future pipeline

The Mena region entered 2026 from a position of strength, having ranked first globally in January with a CPMI of 1.05 — a 16% jump from December 2025's 0.90. That momentum reflected broad-based gains across infrastructure, residential and institutional sectors, with Qatar, the UAE and Iran all posting scores above 1.20.

The conflict began when the region's project pipeline was strong, and the data suggest that the buffer of accumulated momentum has helped absorb the initial shock. Whether that buffer holds through the remainder of 2026 will depend on how the conflict develops and, in particular, whether the more cautious behaviour visible in pre-execution activity translates into a deferral of new project launches. GlobalData's data through April suggest the region is maintaining momentum, but the direction of the pre-execution trend is a forward-looking indicator to be watched in the coming months.